U F O Theory -- Ionic Triangle Stealth Craft
So I wanted to post something besides the usual essay today but couldn't think of anything fast enough. This is a fallback I've had ready for a while, ever since an old (dead) COT topic. Plus someone else was blogging about UFOs so why not (see Czar's blog).
Now, the UFOs in question here aren't the flying saucers. It's the giant, silent triangle craft with three running lights. There have been sightings all over the country, and I even know someone who claims to have seen one. This description is near-universal. It seems unlikely to me that it's made up.
Well, a few months ago, there was an episode of Mythbusters that gave me an idea:
Why I Think This is Plausible
First of all, everybody's probably going "But what about ET?" Well, the answer is ET is working for us, and Rahkshi don't have running lights last I checked.
But seriously, I don't think any of the alien ideas are actual plausible theories. That doesn't mean it's impossible -- believe me, I'd love it if there were aliens and if they had wacky enough technology to actually come here. But there's three huge problems with the idea:
1) Statistics. Statistically the chances of life-supporting planets being close enough to us for a sublight trip here (and then only to fly around trying not to be seen) are pretty unlikely. Never mind the fact that in both major origins worldviews, logically, it's unlikely that aliens exist at all, but that's a subject we can't get into here (and is full of confusion among the populus). Statistics for the homes of aliens are an even bigger problem.
2) Travel time. Let's assume that there's an intelligent, highly advanced alien civ on a planet on the other side of the galaxy. Unlikely, but pretend. They would have to spend hundreds of thousands of years to get here as sublight speeds, since there's an upper speed limit called the speed of light. Matter cannot reach or surpass this speed. So unless some aliens figured out how to make warp drive a reality, it's unlikely they'd come here.
3) Least likely scenario. There's two main possibilities for these UFOs IMO: (1) They're classified aircraft, and (2) They're aliens. Since we know the US de-classifies aircraft every once in a while, we can assume they have classified aircraft right now. So for both the silent triangles and flying saucers, isn't it logical to conclude the UFOs are most likely classified aircraft?
The argument I see so often is "Here's evidence that there's really a UFO.... Therefore aliens are real." That makes no sense, really. Evidence that an unidentified flying object really is flying, and really is unidentified, is just that -- evidence that something's in the air that we don't know what it is. It's a giant logical leap to say it proves aliens. No, I would argue that it barely even implies them.
I think a much better argument is "Here's evidence of UFOs, and also, we can assume USA has classified aircraft. Putting two and two together, UFOs are probably just classified aircraft."
And then, the triangle shape of this theory would explain one of the types we hear about so often.
*waits for government to storm house*