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Memoirs Contest Voting!


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Voting for the Memoirs of the Dead contest is now open!

 

First, please vote in the MATH POLL.

 

Next, view the 15 category polls in this forum. Read each entry in a category before voting! You have until midnight of Thursday, April 30, 2015 to vote.

 

[This stage of the contest is now closed.]

Edited by bonesiii

The Destiny of Bionicle (chronological retelling of Bionicle original series, 9 PDFs of 10 chapters each on Google Drive)Part 1 - Warring with Fate | Part 2 - Year of Change | Part 3 - The Exploration Trap | Part 4 - Rise of the Warlords | Part 5 - A Busy Matoran | Part 6 - The Dark Time | Part 7 - Proving Grounds | Part 8 - A Rude Awakening | Part 9 - The Battle of Giants

My Bionicle Fanfiction  (Google Drive folder, eventually planned to have PDFs of all of it)

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  • 2 months later...

Okay, folks, brace yourselves for gobs of math and logic.

 

Don't say I didn't warn you. :P

 

 

The following is a record of the analysis I ran through to determine what to do for the ranking poll that was planned for the final stage of this contest. That poll has been launched here (you have until Thursday April 2 to vote in it). Short answer: four entries have been guaranteed as final winners, and seven are up for consideration in the final poll, for (at least, and probably exactly) the two final spots (so this is less a ranking poll and more a "which entries are in?" poll as it turns out).

 

Summary of analysis results:

 

Four entries that cannot be lower than 6th place, so are guaranteed winners:

Icarax (Certainty by Baron Von Nebula)
Ancient (The First Hunter by Emissary to the Void)
Hydraxon (Three on Three by Makuta Matata)
Nidhiki (Memory by Exitium)

and 7 entries we still need to determine the rankings for, two of which will be winners:

Spiriah (All That Glitters by Magnus Greel)
Jovan (Teacher by Tikiturbo)
Ihu (The Mentor's Way by Mersery)
Naho (First Kill by TheSkeletonMan939)
Lhikan (Legends of Lhii by Yio)
Reysa (Memento Vivere by Infrared)
Kodan (The Unknown Turaga by ZippyWharrgarbl)

 

The full analysis record:

 

First, I looked at the math poll, which along with the vote numbers above is meant to help determine the number of final winners, and chose the average. Note that nobody who voted for the "over half" option followed directions. Three of them gave no indication of a number at all, so I went with 9 (as 8 was the highest other option). One seemed to want a winner in each category, so I went with 15.

These average to 6 final winners.

NOTE, however, that the math poll clarified that this could change based on amount of votes in the category polls themselves. If, for example, there were 8 wins-by-far, and none others that even came close, I would make the final 7 or 8, depending on how the votes came out.


Second, if in a category poll the "no winner" option had a tie or majority, against only one entry, I removed that entry from consideration. This removed four polls: Zaktan, Mavrah, Botar, and Gorast.

Third, I compared the no winners options in polls with two entries. This leads to ambiguity which is the main reason for this ranking poll.

For example, in the Kodan poll, no winners got 7 votes, entry 1 also got 7 votes, and entry 2 got 10. Entry 2 beats out Entry 1, but left unclear is whether those who voted to have a winner and voted for Entry 1 would also vote for Entry 2. If all of them did, Entry 2 would have 17 votes, putting it way ahead of no winners, but if all of them didn't, no winners would have 14 votes, beating Entry 2.

This leads to two lists -- the list of ambiguous polls (as to winning at all), and one in which the poll winner is ahead of the no winners and the other entry (these aren't ambiguous as to wins -- the entry is a winner, but the rank compared to other winners is still unclear too; for example, in the Ihu poll, the winner could be ahead by anything from three votes to ). I listed the votes for each.

Ambiguous as to wins (and rank unclear):

Lhikan (Legends of Lhii) 9 no, 5 other, 12 yes
Range = 12/14 to 17/9 (-2 to +8 if you cancel out the fors and againsts)

Reysa (Memento Viviere) 9 no, 11 yes, 4 other
Range = 11/13 to 15/9 (-2 to +6)

Kodan (The Unknown Turaga) 7 no, 7 other, 10 yes
Range = 10/14 to 17/7 (-4 to +10)


Not Ambiguous (as to wins, but rank still unclear):

Nidhiki (Memory) 4 no, 17 yes, 1 other
Range = 17/5 to 18/4 (+12 to +14)

Ihu (The Mentor's Way) 6 no, 10 other, 19 yes
Range = 19/16 to 29/6 (+3 to +23)

Naho (First Kill) 6 no, 10 yes, 3 other
Range = 10/9 to 13/6 (+1 to +7)

Jovan (Teacher) 5 no, 14 yes, 4 other
Range = 14/9 to 18/5 (+5 to +13)


Fourth, I listed the one-entry winners and their votes:

Spiriah (All That Glitters) 15/6 (+9)

Hydraxon (Three on Three) 18/7 (+11)

Icarax (Certainty) 19/6 (+13)

Ancient (The First Hunter) 18/6 (+12)



Next, I listed the rankings that would be produced on the low sides and high sides of the unclear ones as well as the clear ones.

CLEARS:
+13 Icarax    c
+12 Ancient    c
+11 Hydraxon    c
+ 9 Spiriah    c

LOWS:
+12 Nidhiki
+ 5 Jovan
+ 3 Ihu
+ 1 Naho
- 2 Lhikan
- 2 Reysa
- 4 Kodan

LOWS + CLEARS:
+13 Icarax    c
+12 Ancient    c
+12 Nidhiki
+11 Hydraxon    c
+ 9 Spiriah    c
+ 5 Jovan
+ 3 Ihu
+ 1 Naho
- 2 Lhikan
- 2 Reysa
- 4 Kodan

HIGHS:
+23 Ihu
+14 Nidhiki
+13 Jovan
+10 Kodan
+ 8 Lhikan
+ 7 Naho
+ 6 Reysa

HIGHS + CLEARS:
+23 Ihu
+14 Nidhiki
+13 Jovan
+13 Icarax    c
+12 Ancient    c
+11 Hydraxon    c
+10 Kodan
+ 9 Spiriah    c
+ 8 Lhikan
+ 7 Naho
+ 6 Reysa


Now we can get some preliminary findings.

Since the Icarax, Ancient, and Hydraxon entries do not fall off the list of 6 winners even under a worst case scenario (for them) of the unclears ranking as high as possible (by the math of their category polls anyways), I am considering these three definite winners:

Certainty
The First Hunter
Three on Three

Notice also that the Nidhiki entry earned far more votes of its own than the other unclears. Checking its worst-case against the best-case of the others shows that it, too, cannot drop off the top 6:

HIGHS (except Nidhiki at LOW) + CLEARS:
+23 Ihu
+13 Jovan
+13 Icarax    c
+12 Ancient    c
+12 Nidhiki
+11 Hydraxon    c
+10 Kodan
+ 9 Spiriah    c
+ 8 Lhikan
+ 7 Naho
+ 6 Reysa

So this entry is guaranteed as a final winner as well:

Memory

Here's its best-case, while I'm at it:

LOWS + CLEARS:
+14 Nidhiki
+13 Icarax    c
+12 Ancient    c
+11 Hydraxon    c
+ 9 Spiriah    c
+ 5 Jovan
+ 3 Ihu
+ 1 Naho
- 2 Lhikan
- 2 Reysa
- 4 Kodan

(So, there's a chance it could be the top winner.)

Considering the others under a worst-case scenario and then best-case, one by one, we see that these entries might end up within the top six or might not:

Spiriah (All That Glitters) -- a clear rank, but with only +9, the main HIGHS + CLEARS list shows it's possible for enough of the unclears to do well enough to push this off the top 6, but the LOWS + CLEARS list shows it could remain within them.

Jovan worst-case:
+23 Ihu
+14 Nidhiki
+13 Icarax    c
+12 Ancient    c
+11 Hydraxon    c
+10 Kodan
+ 9 Spiriah    c
+ 8 Lhikan
+ 7 Naho
+ 6 Reysa
+ 5 Jovan

Jovan best-case:
+13 Icarax    c
+13 Jovan
+12 Ancient    c
+12 Nidhiki
+11 Hydraxon    c
+ 9 Spiriah    c
+ 3 Ihu
+ 1 Naho
- 2 Lhikan
- 2 Reysa
- 4 Kodan

(So Jovan could come in anywhere from last to second!)

Ihu () worst-case:
+14 Nidhiki
+13 Jovan
+13 Icarax    c
+12 Ancient    c
+11 Hydraxon    c
+10 Kodan
+ 9 Spiriah    c
+ 8 Lhikan
+ 7 Naho
+ 6 Reysa
+ 3 Ihu

Ihu best-case:
+23 Ihu
+13 Icarax    c
+12 Ancient    c
+12 Nidhiki
+11 Hydraxon    c
+ 9 Spiriah    c
+ 5 Jovan
+ 1 Naho
- 2 Lhikan
- 2 Reysa
- 4 Kodan

(By far the most ambiguous; could be first or last!)

Naho worst case:
+23 Ihu
+14 Nidhiki
+13 Jovan
+13 Icarax    c
+12 Ancient    c
+11 Hydraxon    c
+10 Kodan
+ 9 Spiriah    c
+ 8 Lhikan
+ 6 Reysa
+ 1 Naho

Naho best case:
+13 Icarax    c
+12 Ancient    c
+12 Nidhiki
+11 Hydraxon    c
+ 9 Spiriah    c
+ 7 Naho
+ 5 Jovan
+ 3 Ihu
- 2 Lhikan
- 2 Reysa
- 4 Kodan

(So, a chance the Naho winner could come in 6th.)

Lhikan worst-case:
+23 Ihu
+14 Nidhiki
+13 Jovan
+13 Icarax    c
+12 Ancient    c
+11 Hydraxon    c
+10 Kodan
+ 9 Spiriah    c
+ 7 Naho
+ 6 Reysa
- 2 Lhikan

Lhikan best:
+13 Icarax    c
+12 Ancient    c
+12 Nidhiki
+11 Hydraxon    c
+ 9 Spiriah    c
+ 8 Lhikan
+ 5 Jovan
+ 3 Ihu
+ 1 Naho
- 2 Reysa
- 4 Kodan

(So just like Naho, Lhikan could come in sixth.)

Reysa worst:
+23 Ihu
+14 Nidhiki
+13 Jovan
+13 Icarax    c
+12 Ancient    c
+11 Hydraxon    c
+10 Kodan
+ 9 Spiriah    c
+ 8 Lhikan
+ 7 Naho
- 2 Reysa

Reysa best:
+13 Icarax    c
+12 Ancient    c
+12 Nidhiki
+11 Hydraxon    c
+ 9 Spiriah    c
+ 6 Reysa
+ 5 Jovan
+ 3 Ihu
+ 1 Naho
- 2 Lhikan
- 4 Kodan

(Although Reysa's highest possibility is the lowest of all entries, it still has a slight chance of coming in sixth, so I can't remove it.)

Finally, Kodan's worst-case:
+23 Ihu
+14 Nidhiki
+13 Jovan
+13 Icarax    c
+12 Ancient    c
+11 Hydraxon    c
+ 9 Spiriah    c
+ 8 Lhikan
+ 7 Naho
+ 6 Reysa
- 4 Kodan

Kodan best:
+13 Icarax    c
+12 Ancient    c
+12 Nidhiki
+11 Hydraxon    c
+10 Kodan
+ 9 Spiriah    c
+ 5 Jovan
+ 3 Ihu
+ 1 Naho
- 2 Lhikan
- 2 Reysa

(Although the Kodan winner could have the worst last-place of all the ones not already removed from consideration, there's also a chance it could get fifth, which is actually better than several of the others, so again I can't remove it.)



So to recap, that leaves us with four entries that cannot be lower than 6th place, so are guaranteed winners:

Icarax (Certainty)
Ancient (The First Hunter)
Hydraxon (Three on Three)
Nidhiki (Memory)

and 7 entries we still need to determine the rankings for, two of which will be winners:

Spiriah (All That Glitters)
Jovan (Teacher)
Ihu (The Mentor's Way)
Naho (First Kill)
Lhikan (Legends of Lhii)
Reysa (Memento Viviere)
Kodan (The Unknown Turaga)

Ideally, I really should have had second and third questions in each category poll asking "if you picked entry 1, and if it loses to entry 2, would you vote entry 2 or no winner?" That would have removed the need for a ranking poll, and any ambiguity that might be caused if people don't vote in it the way they would have at the time.

That's an issue that might come up, but it would mainly affect only determining first place versus second place and so forth. All we really need to determine here is which ones are in and which out, so I've decided not to do a total ranking poll. The math of the wins in the ranking poll COULD be checked against the ranks of the four sure-wins, if somebody wants to, but having first-places for the entire contest has not been a part of past multi-category S&T contests.

I still reserve the right to expand the number of winners by one or two if the results of this poll warrant it. It would work according to the above math, since any of the remaining entries could place 6th or less. However, most likely the number chosen in the math poll will be final.

If it is expanded to 8 winners, the Spiriah entry will be guaranteed to be in based on its previously clear ranking, even if it polls lower here, so that the risk of forgetting what earlier choices were won't overthrow what would have been a win at the time (had I set up the polls the ideal way). It has a good chance, according to my math, of coming in 7th too. Likewise the actual earned votes (and no-winners votes) from the polls for all the unclear cases will not be overruled; only results here that fall within the math of the ambiguous ranges will be accepted. Besides the Spiriah entry, no others really had much potential for a dramatic difference there, though, so I don't foresee problems with this. (I'll check the math anyways just to be safe though.)

 

That leaves the issue of unresolved judging oversights in one entry (the Kanoka issue in the winning Lhikan entry). I've decided that since I have limited time, and it has not already ranked high as-is (meaning there's a fairly strong chance it won't make the top 6 or whatever number anyways), I'll deal with that if it wins. Dealing with it may not be possible this late, so if not, whatever entry comes in just below it will be moved up instead. Cross that bridge if we come to it.

Edited by bonesiii

The Destiny of Bionicle (chronological retelling of Bionicle original series, 9 PDFs of 10 chapters each on Google Drive)Part 1 - Warring with Fate | Part 2 - Year of Change | Part 3 - The Exploration Trap | Part 4 - Rise of the Warlords | Part 5 - A Busy Matoran | Part 6 - The Dark Time | Part 7 - Proving Grounds | Part 8 - A Rude Awakening | Part 9 - The Battle of Giants

My Bionicle Fanfiction  (Google Drive folder, eventually planned to have PDFs of all of it)

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  • 1 month later...

Table used to calc final results
 
Short answer: The results gave 7 entries "bunched" around the +10 mark, with two of them roughly tied for 2nd place. As such, the 6 winner count polled in the previous round, which was said to be flexible in such a case, was indeed expanded by one. However, another entry that could have been added due to a majority above approximately even, was ruled out as it was not "bunched" around +10 like these other ones.
 
Long answer; process followed:

First I put the “old no” and “old yes” votes from the first round of polls, as well as the “old other” (the votes in polls with more than one entry that weren’t for the winning entry). The second round was primarily to decide how to apply the ‘other’ category. Now, the actual voters could not in this system be simply asked how they would have voted (or we would have no way to assure the same people definitely answered at least), so another way had to be decided, and ranking in a second round of polls was chosen. An imperfect system, but it does give us a decision.

The second round included a multiple choice and single choice option; I averaged the results of these for each entry, and converted that to a decimal from the ratio of the top-voted option to each entry’s specific votes. I multiplied the “old other” by this decimal, for each entry, and then subtracted this “new yes (weighted)” from the old other to get the new no (weighted).

Then I added up the old no and weighted no, and new yes and weighted yes, and calculated the total “plus” (subtracting each no from each yes).

Counting from highest plus down to lowest (and one minus) gives us the final ranking. I included the math for all the entries that weren’t already ruled out in stage one, including four that had already been calculated as guaranteed to be in the top six. Two more or less tie for second place (although one had a single other vote in its original poll, and as that was nowhere near its plus I didn't include it in the ranking poll, but this means exactly which one is second or third is unclear).

 

Because of this, and since the seventh then has a plus vote similar to the others, I decided to include it in the wins, upping the number by one to seven. This happened to be the one that had no other entries in its poll but was low enough mathematically to not be a clear win, so it was included in the second round. It ranks the same ("sixth place" because of the tie for second, or seventh place really) whether you include its second round results or not.

One more entry gets a slight negative vote balance by the new system, and two slight positives. These are ruled out. That left one with a positive, but less than five, and not around the same plus-balance as the ones already chosen, so I kept it out as well. Seven stands as the number of wins.

See results topic here.

Edited by bonesiii

The Destiny of Bionicle (chronological retelling of Bionicle original series, 9 PDFs of 10 chapters each on Google Drive)Part 1 - Warring with Fate | Part 2 - Year of Change | Part 3 - The Exploration Trap | Part 4 - Rise of the Warlords | Part 5 - A Busy Matoran | Part 6 - The Dark Time | Part 7 - Proving Grounds | Part 8 - A Rude Awakening | Part 9 - The Battle of Giants

My Bionicle Fanfiction  (Google Drive folder, eventually planned to have PDFs of all of it)

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