Which Kanohi (Mask) do you think is the most overpowered?

**Katuko** · January 4, 2015

Was it ever confirmed that the Mask of Possibilities could make percentages go to 100%? That doesn't quite make sense to me; if that were the case, the likelihood of a Toa that wore such a mask being killed is drastically reduced, and everyone knows that Mask of Possibilities wearers can be killed.

If somehow it can go up to 100%, then I'd throw my hat (well, one of them) into that ring.

Well, if it wasn't 100%, there wouldn't be much point in wearing the mask. Heck, how does it even work in the first place? If a boulder is lying on top of a hill, there is no chance that it will fall by mere chance. It will either fall by some natural cause - due to a force acting upon it, or its weight acting upon the foundation - or it will not fall at all. Saying there's a "30% chance that the boulder will fall" makes no sense to my ears for that reason.

The Mask of Possibilities must have a power which somehow knows the user's wish, then tries to make them true. For example, if the boulder has a very loose foundation, the mask may be able to summon a force just strong enough to make it start rolling. Or, once it is moving down the hill, the mask might slightly influence the area so that the boulder changes directions and misses the wearer of the mask.

It's not OP simply because you can only influence one event at a time, and if you don't know what to influence you can still be killed. Like, if make your crossbow misfire, that saves my life. If the bolt is already whizzing towards me, it's likely too late to notice, and a Hau would have been a better option that day. Or could you just influence yourself to have a 100% chance to dodge all attacks? I dunno. Probably not. I still find "Possibilities" to be another silly power that should have gotten a better definition, or else be better off left out.

Likewise, the Olmak—since only two were known to exist—is a quasi-Legendary mask in my mind.

The Olmak would be a good fit for Legendary mask, since it messes with dimensions and I therefore think it should require just as much mental discipline as slowing down time. But, since a legendary power has this thing about causing a massive energy release when destroyed, we're probably better off with an OP Toa-level mask that simply breaks instead. That way we can be rid of the things without breaking the story in the main dimension as well. Edited January 4, 2015 by Katuko

IcarusBen · January 4, 2015

How would a Felnas affect a Matoran? Oh good God, he used a Felnas on a Ta-Matoran! Now that poor soul is... even more resistant to heat. Huh.

ALVIS · January 4, 2015

How would a Felnas affect a Matoran? Oh good God, he used a Felnas on a Ta-Matoran! Now that poor soul is... even more resistant to heat. Huh.

Perhaps the Ta-Matoran's heat resistance would become amplified to the extent that they would be unable to draw any energy from their surroundings, and would die of hypothermia.

Anything and everything can go horribly, horribly wrong.

**bonesiii** · January 4, 2015

The Avsa is useless against a being with no light energy.

I don't think that argument quite works, since they're rare (or were supposed to be).

But the Avsa also can't just instantly drain any being's total light, can it? Most mask downsides/weaknesses are like "bandwidth" problems; Mask of Strength can't lift a whole mountain, etc. But they aren't meant to be wimpy either; that would defeat the point of them.

The 1st Shadow · January 4, 2015

The Avsa is useless against a being with no light energy.
I don't think that argument quite works, since they're rare (or were supposed to be).

But the Avsa also can't just instantly drain any being's total light, can it? Most mask downsides/weaknesses are like "bandwidth" problems; Mask of Strength can't lift a whole mountain, etc. But they aren't meant to be wimpy either; that would defeat the point of them.

Also, I thought the Avsa had the same ability as the Vorahk, as in it drained strength and life force from beings in addition to moral light. What purpose would that serve unless the mask were designed with sinister intentions? Prior to the Makuta's rebellion, the Avsa would have been seen as an okay mask, rather than immoral. Draining someone of their "goodness" seems like an evil mask from the get-go. I can understand an energy drain being much more useful. Bad guy or Rahi goes out of control, so you use the mask to suck the energy out of them and keep them from causing mayhem. That makes much more sense than "all your inner light belongs to me."

So, correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't that how the Avsa was introduced back in '08? When did it get changed to specifically light-draining?

**bonesiii** · January 4, 2015

Yeah, I think you're right, after checking. BS01's wording is:

It allows its user to drain light, energy, or positive emotions from a target at a distance.

That "energy" probably refers to life energy. The example uses say:

Vamprah used his Kanohi Avsa on Toa Nuva Kopaka to drain his energy in Realm of Fear.
Vamprah also used his mask to drain Radiak's light, turning him into a Shadow Matoran in Shadows in the Sky.

The Kopaka example, at least here, doesn't say it's moral light that was drained. I forget the wording in-story though. So yeah... probably not useless on beings with no moral light. Just has less applications.

The 1st Shadow · January 4, 2015

Yeah, I think you're right, after checking. BS01's wording is:

It allows its user to drain light, energy, or positive emotions from a target at a distance.
That "energy" probably refers to life energy. The example uses say:
Vamprah used his Kanohi Avsa on Toa Nuva Kopaka to drain his energy in Realm of Fear.
Vamprah also used his mask to drain Radiak's light, turning him into a Shadow Matoran in Shadows in the Sky.
The Kopaka example, at least here, doesn't say it's moral light that was drained. I forget the wording in-story though. So yeah... probably not useless on beings with no moral light. Just has less applications.

I thought so. Yeah, like I said, a "goodness"-sucker wouldn't have much use anyway except as an inherently evil object. Thanks for pointing that bit out, bones. I'd forgotten the bit with Kopaka. I think what caused the confusion is that the entire paragraph about it's power focuses mainly on light-draining. Someone should fix that to include a description of its full usage.

fishers64 · January 5, 2015

Telekinesis.

Fortunately, Toa have moral scruples.
The Mask of Tossing Stuff with your Mind? Just use any sort of stealth/speed power to out maneuvre them.

That is, if you aren't choked to death from telekinetic hands or ripped apart already.

And besides, any mask, no matter how OP, can be defeated. That really isn't the point.

Was it ever confirmed that the Mask of Possibilities could make percentages go to 100%? That doesn't quite make sense to me; if that were the case, the likelihood of a Toa that wore such a mask being killed is drastically reduced, and everyone knows that Mask of Possibilities wearers can be killed.

If somehow it can go up to 100%, then I'd throw my hat (well, one of them) into that ring.
Well, if it wasn't 100%, there wouldn't be much point in wearing the mask.

First off, I'm inclined to disagree with this. Let's say I'm in a fortress in the midst of a battle, and the gate desperately needs to get shut before even bigger bad guys show up. Improving the odds of the gate closing in time from 50% to 70% would seem like a substantial advantage.

I think how much probability is altered depends on the will of the user. So a Makuta might be able to alter probability 50% to 100%, but that might be beyond the capability of a Toa. :shrugs: (That's headcanon/theory realm, so take it with salt.)

The problem with the mask is that it appeals to the internal destiny system of the MU, with the idea that there is a "probability" governor in the system, and this mask changes or alters it. What confuses me is, can you up the probability from 0% to 10%? Can you make the impossible unlikely? Unlikely likely? Likely certain? It would seem that really is the case. So even if you can't make everything certain, you might be able to change an impossible situation to one where you really do have a chance.

Edited January 5, 2015 by fishers64

ALVIS · January 5, 2015

Telekinesis.

Fortunately, Toa have moral scruples.
The Mask of Tossing Stuff with your Mind? Just use any sort of stealth/speed power to out maneuvre them.

That is, if you aren't choked to death from telekinetic hands or ripped apart already.

And besides, any mask, no matter how OP, can be defeated. That really isn't the point.

Was it ever confirmed that the Mask of Possibilities could make percentages go to 100%? That doesn't quite make sense to me; if that were the case, the likelihood of a Toa that wore such a mask being killed is drastically reduced, and everyone knows that Mask of Possibilities wearers can be killed.

If somehow it can go up to 100%, then I'd throw my hat (well, one of them) into that ring.
Well, if it wasn't 100%, there wouldn't be much point in wearing the mask.

First off, I'm inclined to disagree with this. Let's say I'm in a fortress in the midst of a battle, and the gate desperately needs to get shut before even bigger bad guys show up. Improving the odds of the gate closing in time from 50% to 70% would seem like a substantial advantage.

I think how much probability is altered depends on the will of the user. So a Makuta might be able to alter probability 50% to 100%, but that might be beyond the capability of a Toa. (That's headcanon/theory realm, so take it with salt.)

The problem with the mask is that it appeals to the internal destiny system of the MU, with the idea that there is a "probability" governor in the system, and this mask changes or alters it. What confuses me is, can you up the probability from 0% to 10%? Can you make the impossible unlikely? Unlikely likely? Likely certain? It would seem that really is the case. So even if you can't make everything certain, you might be able to change an impossible situation to one where you really do have a chance.

I don't purport to be a math whiz, but wouldn't changing 0% to any positive percentage be a change of infinitely great magnitude? That seems like it should be outside the mask's capabilities.

Of course, there's are very few scenarios in which something has a flat 0% chance of occurring. With only a few exceptions, almost anything is possible.

TERIDAX941 · January 5, 2015

@ALVIS: Yes you're probably right, I'm pretty sure the Felnas only works on people's inherent powers rather than Kanohi. (makes you wonder... since the Ignika is alive, can the Felnas disrupt it's powers? And what effect will that have? The powers of life gone wild... we're all screwed lol)

Edited January 5, 2015 by Iron_Man5

**Katuko** · January 5, 2015

Well, if it wasn't 100%, there wouldn't be much point in wearing the mask.
First off, I'm inclined to disagree with this. Let's say I'm in a fortress in the midst of a battle, and the gate desperately needs to get shut before even bigger bad guys show up. Improving the odds of the gate closing in time from 50% to 70% would seem like a substantial advantage.

But what does that even mean? "70% chance of closing in time"? You have a max speed, and the gate is closing at a certain speed as well. Either you make it, or you don't. The mask could cause something to distract the guy operating the gate, perhaps, or influence other events in your favor; but that isn't a "70% chance" either. If it works, it works, and if it doesn't, it doesn't. There's no chance involved, at least not when the mask is doing its work.

Probability is honestly meaningless if we are not looking at measuring things we cannot control or predict. Rolling a die or drawing a card is "random" in the way that we can not predict the outcome, but only from our limited point of view. When you draw the first card, you can say you have a 50% chance of guessing whether it's red or black, and for every card after that we can count the number of cards on the table and determine if you now have a 60/40% ratio of color, 45/55%, and so on. But the card on top of the deck is not actually random. It is already determined as soon as the deck has been shuffled. If the card on top is the King of Spades, whether you guess red or black doesn't change anything - it will still be the same black-suited card no matter what you guess. When you draw that card, from your point of view you have a 50% chance of being right, but from the deck (or the world)'s point of view you have either a 0% or a 100% chance.

So if you sit down with the Mask of Possibilities, what does it actually do? Does it give you foresight enough to predict that the card is Spades? Does it swap the top card with a different one to give you an advantage? Does it cause the dealer to drop the deck, shuffling the cards and putting the card you actually guessed on top? Does it make someone call the dealer out on fraud, so that the game has to be restarted under more favorable conditions?

The problem with the mask is that it appeals to the internal destiny system of the MU, with the idea that there is a "probability" governor in the system, and this mask changes or alters it. What confuses me is, can you up the probability from 0% to 10%? Can you make the impossible unlikely? Unlikely likely? Likely certain? It would seem that really is the case. So even if you can't make everything certain, you might be able to change an impossible situation to one where you really do have a chance.

Yeah, here's the thing: For probability to exist as anything other than statistical analysis, the MU must actually be using some sort of random number generator to govern its physics. Either that, or the Mask of Possibilities is actually allowed to tap into the system and force a minor change, which is more in line with its name - it allows you create a minor effect that is possible. You can't make the floor turn to lava, but you can make the wind guide an arrow you've shot a tiny bit more to the left in order to hit your target.

Owlexander · January 5, 2015

I'm starting to think the Mask of Creation is probably the most OP, 'cause you can basically create any mask possible with it.

Since it's in Gen2 though, we don't know if masks will be useless yet or not.

**bonesiii** · January 5, 2015

If it works, it works, and if it doesn't, it doesn't. There's no chance involved

This doesn't follow -- you're talking about the results rather than the chance of success prior to the activity happening.

That's like saying the weatherman was wrong to give a 70% chance of rain, after the fact, and it rained.

If chance is involved, the results will be one or the other, so getting a result does not logically show that chance wasn't involved...

the card on top of the deck is not actually random. It is already determined as soon as the deck has been shuffled

Appears to be the same error again. The second sentence does not comment on the method of determination, which was random, merely the timing, so does not logically prove the first statement.

It is random, because if you do the same macro-scale actions of shuffling, not cheating, etc., the same card will NOT always appear on top. That's what "random" means. The mask would presumably alter the little motions we can't consciously control while shuffling to favor (but not force up) the card we have in mind, in this case.

For probability to exist as anything other than statistical analysis, the MU must actually be using some sort of random number generator to govern its physics.

Does rolling dice involve a random number generator?

It depends on how you define the term. If you include it in its widest sense, yes -- but not in the narrow sense that the Great Beings must code one in, for the same reason a hand toss of dice will involve many variables you can't consciously detect or control, so that probabilities will describe it.

Edited January 5, 2015 by bonesiii

**Katuko** · January 5, 2015

If it works, it works, and if it doesn't, it doesn't. There's no chance involved
This doesn't follow -- you're talking about the results rather than the chance of success prior to the activity happening.

That's like saying the weatherman was wrong to give a 70% chance of rain, after the fact, and it rained.

If chance is involved, the results will be one or the other, so getting a result does not logically show that chance wasn't involved...

That is the point - there is only a "chance" because we - the people observing - must define it so in order to make predictions. From the world's point of view, there is no actual "chance". Everything that happens, happens due to the laws of nature, which we do not have the capacity to read accurately. Therefore we can not predict exactly how long a hurricane will last, or exactly where the rain will start/stop, we can only make guesses.

But the Mask of Possibilities alters "probability". Probability has no meaning apart from that which we assign to it. As I mentioned in my previous post: If you try to guess which card will be drawn from a deck, you have - from your own point of view - 50% chance of guessing red or black correctly. From the deck's point of view - or rather: reality, the world... whatever we want to call it - your guess is either right or wrong. And that is the problem: The Mask of Possibilities "alters probability", but probability only stems from the fact that we do not have all the details at hand. The card stays the same no matter what you guess. So if you are entering a game of chance, such as a card game, and you need an Ace to win... what can the mask do?

The deck has already been shuffled, the next card is 100% certain from nature's point of view. If you know that there are 10 cards left and 1 of them is the Ace you need, that is a 10% chance of having gambled for the right card to come up... but what can the mask actually do to alter that percentage, were you to activate it at this moment? If it is to have an effect, it must actually do something physical to the elements involved in your game of chance. It must fudge a die roll, cause a spontaneous breeze to make your paper plane fly straight, make the hinges of a door suddenly turn out to be rusty so that you make it in time before it closes.

How does any of it actually work? Saying "there's now a 70% chance rather than a 50% chance that the door will close before you reach it" actually makes no sense. The mask must have an effect upon things around it in order to actually affect "probability" - and that "probability" is still only in the eye of the observer. Let's say you are entering a race vs. 4 other people with the same max speed as you. How does the mask change your chance of winning from 20% to 25%, for example? It must eliminate a competitor somehow. Does it alter the track in your favor? Does it magically make one of the opponents retire early due to exhaustion or stomach flu? Does it increase your top speed?

What kind of situation can we actually use this mask in where it is not either going straight for 100% chance to do what you want, or else failing to make sense?

Edited January 5, 2015 by Katuko

**bonesiii** · January 5, 2015

K, exactly how it works wasn't specified for that mask anymore than exactly how the Hau (lol) works or the Pakari. Why should it be demanded we understand every canon detail of that one but not the others? In all those cases it seems generally left to the fans to think about it and come up with the most plausible understandings themselves.

And this is getting off-topic; it's not about how mask powers work but if any are overpowered.

Probability has no meaning apart from that which we assign to it.

I don't know what this means. The fact that the card on top will vary randomly and that the math of probability describes this remains without us assigning meanings. And without any humans at all, many things in nature follow random "scatter patterns", like where raindrops land.

From the deck's point of view - or rather: reality, the world... whatever we want to call it - your guess is either right or wrong. And that is the problem:

That isn't a problem. That the result will be one or the other was always, again, part of the definition of probability! It does not contradict probability. It simply describes part of it.

probability only stems from the fact that we do not have all the details at hand.

No, probability comes from the fact that in multiple attempts with the same macro-scale details, the micro-scale (as it were; not always literally micro) details will vary randomly. Raindrops will fall in a random scatter pattern. The mask changes little factors, evidently, to cause the drops to tend to fall in a target spot (for example). How it does this is simply not specified, anymore than how Pakari increases strength.

The deck has already been shuffled

The mask would act during the shuffling. Setting up a scenario where probability's role is in the past, before the mask is activated, just makes the scenario irrelevant.

Saying "there's now a 70% chance rather than a 50% chance that the door will close before you reach it" actually makes no sense. The mask must have an effect upon things around it

Why do you seem to think the latter is somehow incompatible with the former? :blink: It does make sense, and the latter explains how it does.

That said, I'm not sure why this door closing example was raised. It's not an example I would think of for probability. But situations where probability is involved in the timing could occur, so it still works.

Edited January 5, 2015 by bonesiii

ALVIS · January 5, 2015

K, exactly how it works wasn't specified for that mask anymore than exactly how the Hau (lol) works or the Pakari. Why should it be demanded we understand every canon detail of that one but not the others? In all those cases it seems generally left to the fans to think about it and come up with the most plausible understandings themselves.

The problem is that the powers of the Hau and Pakari are much simpler to understand/explain. The Mask of Possibilities, on the other hand, controls an abstract notion that doesn't even properly exist. Katuko's exploration of the mask's logistics has given me, and probably others, a much better sense of how it could work or might work in the context of the MU. I didn't need such a lesson about the Hau and Pakari.

You are correct, though, in saying that it's off-topic. Perhaps the subject could migrate to the "Real-life physics in BIONICLE" topic (even though probability isn't actually part of the laws of physics)?

**Katuko** · January 5, 2015

And this is getting off-topic; it's not about how mask powers work but if any are overpowered.

Well, this mask, by "altering probability" is either a reality-warping OP mask, or it is a mere curiosity. Knowing even the smallest detail of how it makes the probability-changes come true would help knowing if it's OP or not.

Probability has no meaning apart from that which we assign to it.
I don't know what this means. The fact that the card on top will vary randomly and that the math of probability describes this remains without us assigning meanings. And without any humans at all, many things in nature follow random "scatter patterns", like where raindrops land.

No, the card on top is not random once the deck has been shuffled and the card you hope for is decided. If the game is about guessing which card is on top, you have 1/52 chance of being right at any point. The mask, when used, would potentially be able to make your mind reach the right guess, or to make the cards fall slightly differently when shuffled so that your guess ends up on top to be drawn first.

If the game is well underway, however, and the deck has been shuffled, and you have already said that you need the King of Hearts... then yes, you technically have a 1/52 chance of having guessed right, but it is no longer a situation where "probability" can be altered. The card on top has come to rest, it is already determined with 100% accuracy. Your guess has no meaning. If you were to activate the mask just as the dealer flipped the top card, it should logically have no effect on the outcome. You need the King of Hearts, and you had 1/52 chance of being right when you made your guess, but the mask can no longer change the probability of you guessing right or the right card ending up on top, because that is already decided.

The same goes for most other situations involving "chance". It is not "chance" that you get hit by a boulder that suddenly rolled down the hill. You came to work today, you went to that spot to do your job, and the boulder was loosened by years of erosion or some other force acting upon it. Even the path the boulder takes rolling down the hill and striking you is not chance. It is physics. If the Mask of Possibilities were to help you, it could make you able to pick the right direction to dodge, or make the boulder strike a smaller rock and divert its path. But it is not chance. It is not "altering probability".

Raindrops are similarly not actually random. Chaotic, unpredictable, yes. But they land where they land due to physics. Due to the exact arrangement of particles and the myriad of forces acting upon them from they form till they drop and land. They are random to our eyes, but the probability of hitting you is only due to us being unable to measure their path. So how will the Mask of Possibilities "alter probability" to make you less wet in the rain?

My point is, what effect does "altering probability" actually have on physics, when we know that "chances" and "percentages" are only so because we lack the ability to predict events accurately?

EDIT: And yeah, I'll make a new topic for this subject if the discussion isn't concluded within a few posts.

Edited January 5, 2015 by Katuko

**bonesiii** · January 6, 2015

Well, this mask, by "altering probability" is either a reality-warping OP mask, or it is a mere curiosity. Knowing even the smallest detail of how it makes the probability-changes come true would help knowing if it's OP or not.

Not really -- we don't need to know how the Pakari makes a being stronger in order to know there's some kind of limit to how much. Likewise, we don't need to know how the mask affects probabilities to know there must be some kind of limit to how much. It might help if it stated it briefly, but we can also reasonably infer from the rule that masks of a certain level have limits about where it would be.

We might be curious how it works, just as we might wonder if the Pakari mutates muscles or adds energy to them or whatever, and it could be relevant to how powerful it is, if this was a rigorous physics-based story. (It isn't really, though; it's more of a comics-book-physics universe in many ways.) But those technical details are usually avoided on purpose in Bionicle, so we're left to theorize them, if we care.

No, the card on top is not random once the deck has been shuffled and the card you hope for is decided.

Uh, yeah, it's still random, but no, the mask won't help you if you activate it too late. But again, all that does is make this scenario irrelevant. The mask would apply to during the shuffling (I'll presume you missed my edit, though ).

The mask, when used, would potentially be able to make your mind reach the right guess

That would be more like a mask of Lucky Guessing, rather than the mask we're talking about. This isn't about knowledge but about making your wishes more likely to come true, when randomness is at play. See definition:

allows its user to alter the probability of a situation. The mask can be used to increase the chance of a certain event happening, or lessen the likelihood of something occurring.

The rest of your card example continues on the same premise -- all you're doing is giving an example where probability's role is over. It would be like giving an example of Kaukau in a desert. With no flash floods. Or water tanks. Or... anything wet. Doesn't prove that the power of waterbreathing is never relevant. :]

The same goes for most other situations involving "chance". It is not "chance" that you get hit by a boulder that suddenly rolled down the hill. You came to work today, you went to that spot to do your job, and the boulder was loosened by years of erosion or some other force acting upon it.

And that these things coincided was chance, because walking by boulders does not reliably result in the boulder falling on you.

Except in movies.

is not chance. It is physics.

Chance and physics aren't mutually exclusive. See above points... And same goes for your later repeats of these false statements that "it is not chance." Yes, Kat. Yes, it is. It sounds like you're misunderstanding what "chance" means in physics.

Oh, to:

The problem is that the powers of the Hau and Pakari are much simpler to understand/explain.

Simpler, yeah. Much more? Maybe. But problem? No, it makes sense to have a variety of complexity in powers. I think Possibilities was chosen intentionally to be more "exotic" among the comic-book range of powers.

The Mask of Possibilities, on the other hand, controls an abstract notion that doesn't even properly exist.

Again I can only say maybe. :shrugs: Frankly, this description sounds more abstract to me. And what's "proper"?

If you wear a mask that makes you lift a car, or a mask that does the "chance cube" Jedi trick, both are powers and in different situations they both have uses, that you might need. So both exist...

I didn't need such a lesson about the Hau and Pakari.

Okay. But topics have discussed before the details of how they work and have raised plenty of tricky questions about them.

Edited January 6, 2015 by bonesiii

fishers64 · January 6, 2015

I don't know what this means. The fact that the card on top will vary randomly and that the math of probability describes this remains without us assigning meanings. And without any humans at all, many things in nature follow random "scatter patterns", like where raindrops land.
No, the card on top is not random once the deck has been shuffled and the card you hope for is decided. If the game is about guessing which card is on top, you have 1/52 chance of being right at any point. The mask, when used, would potentially be able to make your mind reach the right guess, or to make the cards fall slightly differently when shuffled so that your guess ends up on top to be drawn first.

If the game is well underway, however, and the deck has been shuffled, and you have already said that you need the King of Hearts... then yes, you technically have a 1/52 chance of having guessed right, but it is no longer a situation where "probability" can be altered. The card on top has come to rest, it is already determined with 100% accuracy. Your guess has no meaning. If you were to activate the mask just as the dealer flipped the top card, it should logically have no effect on the outcome. You need the King of Hearts, and you had 1/52 chance of being right when you made your guess, but the mask can no longer change the probability of you guessing right or the right card ending up on top, because that is already decided.

The deck has already been shuffled
The mask would act during the shuffling. Setting up a scenario where probability's role is in the past, before the mask is activated, just makes the scenario irrelevant.

*ahem* (Edit: ninja'd)

My point is, what effect does "altering probability" actually have on physics, when we know that "chances" and "percentages" are only so because we lack the ability to predict events accurately?

My failure to predict events accurately depends on the knowledge and powers I have. If I have X-Ray vision and use it, the chances of me guessing the top card are 100%. This, too, is a matter of physics.

You're getting this mixed up. Logic is what is - probability is how things will change. Physics encompasses all of that. Physics will tell me what a tensile strength of a metal is, the force a warhammer will have if it hits, and the result (sword broken in half.) Probability tells me the likelihood of a certain person choosing to wield that particular metal sword against said warhammer.

At least, that's how I view it.

Edited January 6, 2015 by fishers64

**Katuko** · January 6, 2015

You're getting this mixed up. Logic is what is - probability is how things will change. Physics encompasses all of that. Physics will tell me what a tensile strength of a metal is, the force a warhammer will have if it hits, and the result (sword broken in half.) Probability tells me the likelihood of a certain person choosing to wield that particular metal sword against said warhammer.

There can be no chance when we start manipulating events. When you go to the armory to get your weapon, maybe you have two swords. Maybe you have a 50% chance of choosing each. But if I focus my Mask of Possibilities on you at this moment, would you really say I'm making it "20% more likely" for you to pick weapon A over weapon B, if that is my intention? How does one even begin to measure the probability of you choosing weapon A instead of B? If we base it upon your past preferences, the quality of the weapon, and so on, it ceases to be random; and if I start manipulating you with a mask power, the factor of random chance is basically thrown to the wayside.

The only example I can find for this mask is from one of Greg's answers to a fan:

The mask's power was based off the Scarlet Witch's hex power, circa 1960s-1980s. So, for example, someone fires a gun at you, it alters the probability of the bullet missing you and hitting the villain's control panel from 1000-1 to 1-1. It does not affect the past events leading up the bullet being fired.

So basically it does manipulate physics in minute ways. There can be no other explanation, really.

What I mean with the deck is that if you manipulate the deck being shuffled, you remove chance and randomness. Manipulating a boulder to fall is not chance. Making your friend able to dodge a bullet is no longer mere chance. These events - and very few events - can be said to be actually random when viewed from the world's point of view. Me saying there's a 1/52 chance to guess the right card is meaningless to the actual physics of the world, especially if we start to factor in the possibility of dropping a card, or having accidentally put an extra card in the deck. If I want to increase my odds of guessing right, I must either obtain knowledge or foresight, or I must make a physical change upon the situation. This should by some train of logic make the Mask of Possibilities able to affect your guess of a drawn card, or the shuffling of the deck, but make it utterly unable to change the state of the deck once shuffled, and unable to make a boulder fall if it is not already going to fall within seconds anyways due to physics.

And that these things coincided was chance, because walking by boulders does not reliably result in the boulder falling on you.

And that would be the point. To the outside observer - such as you, the victim of the boulder - it would be chance that you happened to walk past that boulder right as it fell. But to the world, to nature, to the laws of physics, it is not chance. There is no cosmic roll of the die that determines when the boulder falls. Physics determines when. We have absolutely no way of measuring the movement of every particle at all times, but if we could, we would be able to determine how things will come to be. We would be able to see the way the tiny breeze is pushing away the final few specks of sand that keep the boulder in place.

If we know something is happening, but not exactly how, then we can say it is chance. But still, our estimations of "20% chance to fall", or "million-in-one chance of missing" are meaningless unless put in perspective. This is why we say getting heads in a coin flip is 50:50, getting heads 2 times in a row is 1:4, getting heads 10 times in a row is something like 1:1000. But to the coin, nothing really changes. If it happens to be flipped the same way every time, it may well land on heads 100 times in a row. We call this an exceedingly low probability, but we must never forget that probability is just something we have invented. Manipulating the chance of the coin landing on heads is the same as altering either the coin, the coin flipper, the environment near the coin flipping, etc. I just want to know which of these things the Mask of Possibilities could actually manage to do, or if it's just another "meh, it can magically do whatever it wants" hand-wave.

In order to even say that the aforementioned boulder has a "20% chance to fall within the next few minutes", we must first have an estimate of how much the state of that boulder is changing over time. If there is no change whatsoever, then there is no chance that it will fall at all, unless someone decides to push it. And if someone pushes it, we do not call it chance, do we? Even though we could say that it is chance that someone decides to push it. "There is a 10% chance that a certain Matoran will push the boulder" is another meaningless probability. 10% as compared to what? His usual mindset for rock-pushing? His new work schedule of pushing rocks? Every other Matoran's rock-pushing destiny? A Toa's need to trap a Rahi with the rock? We can invent percentage probabilities for just about anything, but that doesn't make them sensible. I honestly don't like "powers" that are not even vaguely defined beyond "it does whatever the plot requires". At least with Strength and Speed and Shielding we know what they can reasonably do. "Possibilities" is pure movie magic, basically.

So my question is still: What does the Mask of Possibilities actually do to change "probability"? Can it create forces that act upon the world? Can it affect the mind of a person? Does the user have any control over how the "wish" manifests, such as by choosing mind-affection instead of rust to make fishers64 choose weapon A over weapon B?

Because if this thing can actually alter reality in any way it wants in order to make things come true, I will say it is overpowered.

**bonesiii** · January 6, 2015

Edit I was about to make but will lead with in new post as I saw you'd posted:

Definitions of probability:

a strong likelihood or chance of something:

the branches of mathematics concerned with the laws governing random events

(These are just a few definitions, not chosen for being the top ones, though the latter is the lead of the Britannica def; chosen just to show that your statements like "not random" are not accurate. ) So, the core problem with your logic seems to be that you're using definitions of these words contrary to normal use, like in this example:

Raindrops are similarly not actually random. Chaotic, unpredictable, yes. But they land where they land due to physics.

Chaotic, unpredictable*, and landing where they land due to physics, are part of chance and random. If you say "not actually random", you can define the word in such a way, but that's just semantics and equivocation in this context since you're just using it differently from how I did.

The point of random and chance is that if you watch multiple raindrops fall over time, they fall in a roughly equal placement across a patch of ground, rather than all in one spot.

*Unpredictable is actually not a fair word here; if you had advanced enough sensors you could. A better way to say it would be guided by small-scale variables not part of the main variables that are constant between multiple situations. In all the cases of the raindrops, gravity is the same, the physics of water is the same, etc. But the smaller variables are not forced into the same thing; they vary randomly.

There can be no chance when we start manipulating events.

Only if we remove the smaller variables entirely, but even then, the mask would just be the power of "Eliminate Other Possibilities", and is still a power dealing with probability! (Dealing with removing it.)

But that doesn't sound accurate to this mask, which influences rather than totally forces, apparently. Chance is still involved in the final product (not just in a removing it sense), just lessened.

When you go to the armory to get your weapon, maybe you have two swords. Maybe you have a 50% chance of choosing each. But if I focus my Mask of Possibilities on you at this moment, would you really say I'm making it "20% more likely" for you to pick weapon A over weapon B, if that is my intention?

Wheatley: Um..."True". I'll go "True".

How does one even begin to measure the probability of you choosing weapon A instead of B?

Same way probabilities are tested/measured in real life, I'd expect. No? Play the scenario multiple times and measure how likely it is. Right? If you play it 100 times in a control test, and the person picks the sword half the time, that's 50% chance. Play it 100 with the mask doing as you suggest, and he picks the one you wanted 70%, that's 20% more likely.

Boom.

But of course, in actual events you only get one scenario. So what's the answer in the one scenario?

Simple -- you don't measure it because when your life is on the line and you need the villain to pick a sword you know you're better against (for example), you aren't interested in measuring the probability. You just want it to be more likely he picks that sword, that time!

Pretty simple really.

Of course, realistically the guy is more likely to favor one sword over the other, so the starting percentage isn't likely to be 50%... buuuut, same idea. Just adjust the math accordingly.

So basically it does manipulate physics in minute ways. There can be no other explanation, really.

Well yeah. (Although "manipulate physics" is vaguely worded enough to make that say almost nothing. :lookaround: )

Basically it must have small telekinetic tugs on the object that influence it towards what you wanted, or the equivalents in other situations with probability involved (like small mind control tugs maybe with the sword example). Rather than forcing what you wanted totally. (That would be a mask of omnipotence basically and yeah, that would be OP... and also Q. )

What I mean with the deck is that if you manipulate the deck being shuffled, you remove chance and randomness.

Lessen, not remove. But a Mask of Drying is still dealing with water, right? It can only control water, by removing some or all of it. It doesn't control Fire, it controls Water.

Likewise, a mask that makes your desired effect more likely is still dealing with probability, by removing some of it. (How much is fairly open to interpretation as far as is defined or shown, thus far.) That's in fact the whole point of such powers. (If this is a complaint about the name, perhaps, then okay. Maybe mask of Luck would be better, although that name is also often applied to the Calix/Fate as a fan nickname. A "long version" of the name could be "Lessening Possibilities in a Favorable Way". But Possibilities is close enough. And the confusion is removed by reading the bio, so yeah.)

Manipulating a boulder to fall is not chance. Making your friend able to dodge a bullet is no longer mere chance.

So you are conceding that without the manipulation, these examples do involve chance? By your calling it removing chance, you must believe the chance is there to remove. Yeah?

(And since it's only partial removal, chance is still involved, really. Unless, I guess, it was already very likely.)

Edit:

Me saying there's a 1/52 chance to guess the right card is meaningless to the actual physics of the world, especially if we start to factor in the possibility of dropping a card, or having accidentally put an extra card in the deck. If I want to increase my odds of guessing right

I thought we dealt with this before, but lemme repeat just so it's clear. I don't see this mask as being about guessing. I see it about (in your analogy here) picking the card you want it to be and the mask influences that card to be more likely to be picked in shuffling. (How it does it is another question, which is also interesting but not essential to know.)

I don't know if that's just semantics; it's unclear to me what you mean by it, but I at least wouldn't use that word here.

But if I can translate this into how I'd say this -- "Me saying I am making a 1/52 chance into, say, a 10/52 chance does not tell you how it does it." In that sense you'd be saying the same thing as me, except that apparently you think we need to be told how it does it by this. (Which you contradictorily don't apply to any other mask; Pakari doesn't need to tell you how it increases strength, just that it does.) I'm presuming that's what you mean by "meaningless" here. That would make it a true statement, but also irrelevant since it doesn't change that what the Toa wants the mask to do, happens. (Wants it to make desired outcomes more likely.)

If you mean by "meaningless" something that somehow makes the power impossible or OP... I can only scratch my head and shrug and disagree so far as I know for now. :shrugs:

And again just to be clear:

This should by some train of logic make the Mask of Possibilities able to affect your guess of a drawn card, or the shuffling of the deck

I'm pretty sure it would only be the latter. The bio talks about "events", not knowledge. Admittedly, my suggestion of small mind control for the sword example above (if accurate, and we don't know that), would give us part of what would be needed for that, but the power would also have to scan the right card, and yet would for some reason not just tell you, which is weird. I think it makes more sense that you choosing your thoughts is unaffected and determines what the power tries to do in the outside world. (So the sword example might work that way because the target is outside you. :shrugs: )

Plus that example could work by other means besides mind control; perhaps it slightly tugs the direction he walks as he enters, the way his eyes flick around to settle on one sword first rather than the other, etc. to manipulate him externally.

Or maybe the example is simply outside the limits of what this mask influences, unsure.

Quote
And that these things coincided was chance, because walking by boulders does not reliably result in the boulder falling on you.
And that would be the point.

Then what is the point? You were the one that said it isn't chance. I'm saying it is. If your point is that it is, you can't say it isn't. That's contradictory...

You can't turn around everything I say to make it sound like it makes your point for you, when it doesn't. (Sorry, but pet peeve, and something I've noticed often about your style of approach. Why must you do that? Can't you concede when a good argument is made against an illogical statement you made or the like? That's just good practice, IMO.)

*But presumes you must have something in mind that would make sense... so reads on curiously...*

To the outside observer - such as you, the victim of the boulder - it would be chance that you happened to walk past that boulder right as it fell.

It's not about inside/outside. It's about walking by multiple boulders over time, hypothetically/theoretically, not always resulting in the boulder falling right at that time. This isn't an inside/outside thing or observer/world thing. It's a multiple events versus one event thing.

But the fact that only one event is in view -- even if only one person ever walked by a boulder, ever -- doesn't change that probability is in play!

Just like if only one person in all history rolled a die, that doesn't change that chance was involved in which side it lands on.

But to the world, to nature, to the laws of physics, it is not chance.

Yes it is. Here's where your logic is apparently slipping. Physics, again, includes chance. Even down to the quantum mechanics level it does. It's actually a regular feature in physics subjects. Fancyschmancy math equations are developed to describe chance in physics.

There are some constants between all situations where people walk past boulders on hills. That's the people, the hills, the boulder... gravity, etc.

But there are also little variables, like the way a puff of wind happened to go that day, or the amount of cars that happened to drive by at that moment, shaking the ground juuuuuust enough... or not quite. These are chance, and they are physics. Even the weight of the boulder isn't necessarily constant; it might erode slightly with time, little chips coming off.

It's harder to see the role of chance in this example than a coin or die toss, but it's there. Is this one within the mask's purview? I'm not entirely sure, but I think so. At least if the boulder was already on the verge. What does it influence?

Maybe it influences that wind. Maybe those cars -- maybe not. Probably not the weight of the boulder in that specific case (that would be a deck that has already been shuffled, methinks), unless some factor like a bird landing on it was likely and it influences this, and the bird chips off a piece on the slope slide, making that juuuust enough so it stays up a few seconds/minutes/days/etc. longer (assuming the bird's landing force and weight isn't enough to tip the boulder itself, but maybe a claw digs into a line of weakness and splits a chunk away).

And maybe the mask fails, even though it was influencing it, and still smashes our mask weilder, but it might have still made it less likely. (The unlikely happens sometimes, after all.)

There is no cosmic roll of the die that determines when the boulder falls.

Cosmic? No. Local? Yes. It doesn't need to be cosmic to be chance, lol.

Notice this statement also apparently concedes that chance is involve in rolling dice.

We have absolutely no way of measuring the movement of every particle at all times, but if we could, we would be able to determine how things will come to be.

Yes, and we would see what we know already -- that in multiple situations with certain constants, there are other variables, and the outcomes vary randomly. We would be predicting chance in specific situations. (Since just sensing the movements doesn't control them.) But this hypothetical is basically irrelevant to Toa using the mask, who don't have such powerful senses anyways.

Again, chance/random does not mean literal unpredictability or a lack of little physics. It just means that the outcome will not always be one thing if the situation is not interfered with (and interfering with it does involve probability even in a limiting it sense).

This would be like instead of Watto picking the color on the chance cube that he wants, and Qui-Gon influencing the cube to land on the other color, Qui-Gon just sees clearly as it rolls which side it will land on. The pick has already been made, so if he doesn't influence it, most likely it goes against him. He just sees his failure coming sooner. (Or he might get lucky, and know it sooner.) Mask of Possibilities is like (maybe slightly like, because he may have forced the right side up) influencing the right side to be moved toward up as it rolls along, measuring or no measuring.

If it happens to be flipped the same way every time, it may well land on heads 100 times in a row. We call this an exceedingly low probability, but we must never forget that probability is just something we have invented.

Again, no it isn't! Saying a false statement over and over doesn't make it true. We didn't invent that if you flip a coin a lot, it tends to land on either side about half of the time; we observed it.

Manipulating the chance of the coin landing on heads is the same as altering either the coin, the coin flipper, the environment near the coin flipping, etc. I just want to know which of these things the Mask of Possibilities could actually manage to do, or if it's just another "meh, it can magically do whatever it wants" hand-wave.

I understand you want to know, but you don't really need to know. Whichever way it picks, it's altering probability.

I would think in this case altering the coin is most likely. But altering the little details of the hand flick and wind and the like might be what it does instead. The bio doesn't state it, and doesn't need to, just like Pakari's bio doesn't say how it increases strength. Yes, Pakari is simpler, and that is part of why I pick it for the analogy, to show that your issue with this is apparently not about explaining it or not explaining it, but about it being more complex versus simpler, and showing that when the same sort of uncertainty is present in a simpler power you're accepting that it can happen, apparently. This highlights a contradiction in your approach that should be corrected.

The reason it doesn't need stated is that a story with either power would not normally get into that. Actually in my retelling, my protagonist there probably would; that's his personality, heh. But a normal Toa protagonist for example wouldn't. They wouldn't care about the how; they just want the result. And taking time away from the action to explain the how in the narrative would be unnatural and awkward with most such characters. (And possibly most fans, heh; the retelling is aimed at more physics-minded readers intentionally.)

Canon Bionicle actually had a rule to avoid those technical details, in fact, because it was judged (somewhat misjudged IMO, but only somewhat) that most little kids would be too confused by them. But most kids also have no issue with the effects, including things like messing with probability. That's the kind of thing the target audience loves to roleplay about, after all. Comic book physics.

I think this rule was overused, but it does make sense.

In order to even say that the aforementioned boulder has a "20% chance to fall within the next few minutes", we must first have an estimate of how much the state of that boulder is changing over time. If there is no change whatsoever, then there is no chance that it will fall at all, unless someone decides to push it. And if someone pushes it, we do not call it chance, do we?

Okay, there's two different ideas here, but I wanted to put them together because in this case I think readers need to keep them in context of each other.

1) To say it is a different issue from this mask. The mask user doesn't need to know how likely the boulder falling is; the mask power itself handles that, as I see it. Again, no measuring needed, from the user's perspective, methinks. (And whether the mask needs to measure it I think is debatable, but some things like a coin or cube are simple enough that it probably can't help but detect that. But I think it's more like this -- the user sees a coin toss happening, tells the mask "I want this side", and it scans for that side, and looks for little ways it can tug on either that side itself or other things to influence it. With the boulder, "I don't want it to fall when I'm walking by", and tugs away from falling, or maybe more detailed things mentioned earlier.)

2) And what we call it if somebody pushes the boulder isn't really relevant. The question is what it is, and if chance events can interfere. If not, and this proverbial deck is shuffled, then the mask doesn't fit this situation, and the mask user gets flat. If so -- if there was a chance the person would slip and the boulder wouldn't go, etc. -- then yes, and the mask might make enough of a difference.

So my question is still: What does the Mask of Possibilities actually do to change "probability"? Can it create forces that act upon the world? Can it affect the mind of a person? Does the user have any control over how the "wish" manifests, such as by choosing mind-affection instead of rust to make fishers64 choose weapon A over weapon B?

Because if this thing can actually alter reality in any way it wants in order to make things come true, I will say it is overpowered.

No, all masks alter reality somehow or another to make something come true -- by that logic, they're all overpowered. No, they're simply powered.

Overpowered would mean they do it too much to be unfair, etc. Actually, I'd say this one is usually less powerful than some others, like Telekinesis. With Matatu, that boulder situation isn't even a question. Just force the boulder to stay put. With Possibilities, it might fall on you anyways!

As for your question -- I get it, but we don't know and don't need to know, and the same question is just as relevant to any power, whether Pakari or Komau or Translation. But yes, "forces that act upon the world" is obviously accurate (to all powers, not just this one).

Whether it affects minds is a great question, and could be relevant to OP-ness, but is a tangent from the main discussion you brought up here about probability in general, chance/random, etc.

Having the user affect the method is a good idea. I dunno. (Although I don't see how rust would work in that example...? That would be an "already shuffled" thing, wouldn't it? You'd need a mask of fast rusting for that, I'd think. It might slightly make it rust a little faster, but that's unlikely to be helpful as the person wouldn't really notice that, methinks.) That might be related to OP too (and I think that would be a long discussion and analysis; that could go either way).

Both of those are more of trivia questions, though, and they don't seem likely to make the mask much more or less powerful. (Yes I see the irony of the likelihood being involved in this subject. :-P)

Anyways... seriously, Katuko... you have a rather annoying habit of saying a lot of blatantly false or illogical things in a fairly long post, sparking the need to either let a lot of false claims go unanswered, or generate crazy-long posts debunking them all (and shorter posts trying to cut out the underlying premises apparently aren't applied to your next posts, so it seems like you don't respond to anything but the long version). Why must you do this? Those things didn't need much thought to see why they don't make sense. It gets tedious... Some of them you just needed to look at a dictionary for.

My best advice to you -- and this applies in this situation and in several past discussions... is think before you submit the post! Rethink your statements. And don't think that you can't bring up great questions without doing this. You don't have to post all these false statements in order to get your main questions across. But cutting out all of that would immensely simplify the discussion and probably make it a lot more enjoyable. You can make your points with word choice that is totally accurate and needs no disagreement, and have an interesting and relevant discussion. I would advise trying harder for this.

Hope this helps. >__> =)

Edited January 6, 2015 by bonesiii

IcarusBen · January 6, 2015

Bra'tac, wanna come from the Weirdest Lego Themes topic? Okay. Here we go. Enlighten us once more;

Bra'tac: SILENCE!

Thank you.

Guys, there is a logical solution; the Mask has slight control over the internal physics of the GSR. For instance, bringing up the gun example, if a bad guy fired a bullet at me, I could change the chance of it hitting me from 1-1 to, say, 1,000-1. The GSR would compensate and send a sudden gust of wind, sending the bullet off course and away from me. If I wanted to, I could further alter the probabilities so that the GSR would make wind gust towards the bullet so it'd hit the Big Red Button.

It'd still be useless in a scenario where the deck had already been shuffled, but it could influence the deck before you shuffle it.

Regitnui · January 6, 2015

It'd still be useless in a scenario where the deck had already been shuffled, but it could influence the deck before you shuffle it.

Or during the shuffling. Basically, anything done has an element of chance to it. The mask changes the possibilities, narrowing the chances.

The 1st Shadow · January 6, 2015

Guys, why even use the example of cards at all? You know they didn't have paper in the MU.

fishers64 · January 6, 2015

Guys, why even use the example of cards at all? You know they didn't have paper in the MU.

Because we're human beings trying to understand this concept.

(Also the GBs wrote the tasks to awake Mata Nui on a paper scroll, but that's nether here nor there...)

The 1st Shadow · January 6, 2015

Guys, why even use the example of cards at all? You know they didn't have paper in the MU.
Because we're human beings trying to understand this concept.

(Also the GBs wrote the tasks to awake Mata Nui on a paper scroll, but that's nether here nor there...)

Yeah, but that was one piece of paper.

Even so, to best understand the concept, it's best to use examples that fit the canon that the mask is in. The probability that your enemy will slip on ice/water in the immediate environment, a loose rock falling on an opponent's head during a fight, etc. In-story examples for an in-story mask. That's what its used for, isn't it?

Lewa0111 Nuva · January 6, 2015

Guys, why even use the example of cards at all? You know they didn't have paper in the MU.
Because we're human beings trying to understand this concept.

(Also the GBs wrote the tasks to awake Mata Nui on a paper scroll, but that's nether here nor there...)

Between that and Umbra's skates, I think the Great Beings were having way too much fun trolling whoever came along.

:mirunu: Lewa0111 Nuva

Rooster Nui · January 6, 2015

In my personal opinion, I think the Olmak is the most overpowered Kanohi due to its ability to allow the user to casually hop through dimensions.

However, when it comes to other means of using a Kanohi, I think the Vahi is the most overpowered, due to being able to destroy the fabric of time within the Matoran Universe when destroyed.

Pohatu: Uniter of Stone · January 6, 2015

I say the most OP mask is the Kualsi. Without the right way to counter it, and if the wearer is a skilled fighter, you'd stand no chance.

**Katuko** · January 6, 2015

I have apparently done a shoddy job of expressing my thoughts. I will try to do it again.

My point, to make it short and simple, is that the Mask of Possibilities – by acting upon a single event and manipulating it directly – is removing chance to the point where "probability" of both the original situation and the resulting situation is irrelevant. If you are just standing there trying to predict where the next raindrop will land, then yes, it is random chance, because it's out of your control and you have no real data to base your guess upon. If you are monitoring a single raindrop plus its environment, however, and trying to make it land a certain way, then you have all the data and do not need to guess. Once we have control of the smaller variables, we no longer need to make statistics that are based in the idea of chance. I agree that we do not need to know the actual probability in order to make the mask power work in the story, but that is also why I find "probability" mostly irrelevant to its actual effect, and I feel it would be best redefined.

The problem stems from the loose definition of what "chance" actually does when manipulated, especially if we say that it can end up as "not 100%" after manipulation. It's hard to envision what the mask can and can't do. We agree that a deck cannot be manipulated once shuffled, and that a boulder can not be made to fall if it would require a major force, right? By dealing with miniscule effects and a vague power description, we have the problem of trying to figure out not just its limits, but what it can actually do in the first place! It also leads to me trying to explain my views on probability in sci-fi, which obviously falls flat because sci-fi rules about chance might as well be no rules.

(Which you contradictorily don't apply to any other mask; Pakari doesn't need to tell you how it increases strength, just that it does.) I'm presuming that's what you mean by "meaningless" here. That would make it a true statement, but also irrelevant since it doesn't change that what the Toa wants the mask to do, happens. (Wants it to make desired outcomes more likely.)

Yes, Pakari is simpler, and that is part of why I pick it for the analogy, to show that your issue with this is apparently not about explaining it or not explaining it, but about it being more complex versus simpler, and showing that when the same sort of uncertainty is present in a simpler power you're accepting that it can happen, apparently. This highlights a contradiction in your approach that should be corrected.

I do hold all masks to a certain standard, and I do think that most details are unimportant so long as the basic description holds up. And everything from the Kakama to the Hau - and even the Mohtrek! - has a description which makes its effect upon activation rather clear. "Possibilities" does not, really. It's right that I don't care how much a Pakari can lift in tons, or how much force in Newtons the Hau can block, and I also don't care about the exact amount of particles Possibilities can affect. I just wish to know if it really works by using telekinesis, or mind control, or whatever, so that I can properly envision just what it is allowed to do.

In this case the interpretation of the power can change the usage of it considerably. "Super strength" is usually easy enough, because the actual effect of the power doesn't change regardless of if it makes your muscles stronger or it envelops you in an energy field. I would like to have a few more details of some powers, but in most cases the details are indeed not relevant. Probability, on the other hand, requires more of an agreement of what its power even is. In my view, shuffling cards or rolling dice is indeed "chance" – tiny physics variables which you can not predict, but can conceivably be changed by a tiny force – whereas making a boulder fall or someone close a door faster is not "chance", because the variables involved are much greater and more predictable, and manipulating them requires a level of force which makes the situation more about how much power you're actually packing.

The bio on both BS01 and Wikia is a single sentence which doesn't even cite an example! Being open to interpretation is, well... It is too open for my tastes. We had a similar discussion about Conjuring, if you remember. "Possibilities" is another of those powers which is completely up in the air as to what it can actually do, because by its very concept it doesn't seem to play by any rules at all.

I thought we dealt with this before, but lemme repeat just so it's clear. I don't see this mask as being about guessing. I see it about (in your analogy here) picking the card you want it to be and the mask influences that card to be more likely to be picked in shuffling. (How it does it is another question, which is also interesting but not essential to know.)

I don't know if that's just semantics; it's unclear to me what you mean by it, but I at least wouldn't use that word here.

Yes, it is only semantics. Sorry about that. I, too, see it as making sure your card lands on top. I see that as something it can do, because the cards would already be in motion and it would only require a very slight manipulation of their physics.

What I mean is that it is not really making it X percent more or less likely for the card to end up on top. It is actively trying to force it on top, which basically removes chance altogether. It can't be said to now be a "10:52" chance in my eyes, because physics are either manipulated to make the result 100% predictable, or else the manipulation has failed. The situation changes so that it is no longer the original situation; it is now one in which you are deciding whether you win or you lose. This is why I think putting a number on the new probability is wrong. Before activation, the chance can be 1:10, or 1:500, or 1:30000, it doesn't matter. In my eyes, the mask can not activate and change 1:500 to 1:10, because once it activates your wish results in either 1:1 or 0:1.

Again, a minor distinction (one which I spent way too many words trying to decribe above) but one I feel is relevant.

Basically it must have small telekinetic tugs on the object that influence it towards what you wanted, or the equivalents in other situations with probability involved (like small mind control tugs maybe with the sword example). Rather than forcing what you wanted totally. (That would be a mask of omnipotence basically and yeah, that would be OP... and also Q. )

I agree entirely with this, and it is the kind of thing I want to figure out before passing my final judgement on the mask.

Or maybe the example is simply outside the limits of what this mask influences, unsure.

As I've realized by talking with others, some view "making a boulder fall" as entirely within the realm of Possibilities to make happen at a given moment, whereas I do not. It's all due to different ideas of how "chance" affects us. Because extraordinary luck is pretty much a magical effect, it's easy to imagine anything from Harry Potter's "liquid luck" (a potion which makes you able to be more charismatic and influences you to make better decisions) to Gladstone Duck's "I walk into a mall and I'm automatically customer #1 million". I wish to make sure what the mask can or can't do, before I write a fan fic or something in which I grossly misunderstand its effects. Makes sense?

I just want to have a vague idea about where the line goes between "can do" and "can't do", even if that line is blurry. I think we've managed to discuss the topic to the point where we can start doing that, which is good progress in my book.

I understand you want to know, but you don't really need to know. Whichever way it picks, it's altering probability.

In this case, the definition of what sort of "random" things the Mask of Possibilities can affect is my goal. I have never seen "30% chance" and the likes to be anything except a way for us to approximate and put statistics on the results we get/have observed. I have no problem with putting 1 blue ball in a box with 9 red balls and saying it's "10% chance to pick the blue one". I have no problem with adding 10 more red ones and saying the blue one is now a "5% chance". What I have a problem with is saying that someone could look at that box, magically wave their hand, and then the blue ball has a "5% chance" without actually defining what change occured to make it so. Did the magic power add more red balls? Did it move the blue ball towards the bottom? Did it affect your hand as you stuck it in? Can it affect anything before your hand is in motion at all?

That last thing is really what I want to know. From my point of view, the event being observed should only be possible to manipulate if it is already in motion, for any larger change would not make it "probability", it would just make it another direct power such as Telekinesis or Mind Control.

Probability is, after all, just statistics about the things we can't fully predict in detail. I find it vague and meaningless to use "probability" in the description when we are using the mask to take active control. If it could add in two more Kings of Heart in the deck, then it'd have changed the odds from 1:52 to 3:54, otherwise it's "an attempt to make 1:52 into 1:1". What I mean is that in my view the mask can't really change the odds of a card draw to be 10:52. It either succeeds and makes it 100% chance to win the draw, or it fails and results in 0% chance of winning.

Here's where your logic is apparently slipping. Physics, again, includes chance. Even down to the quantum mechanics level it does. It's actually a regular feature in physics subjects. Fancyschmancy math equations are developed to describe chance in physics.

Again, chance/random does not mean literal unpredictability or a lack of little physics. It just means that the outcome will not always be one thing if the situation is not interfered with (and interfering with it does involve probability even in a limiting it sense).

So we agree that the die would be entirely predictable so long as we had access to a larger amount of data, correct? I do not really have a problem with the definition of chance. I just wonder how the Mask could possibly manipulate the probability of an event – therein lies the problem. The mask is doing something which is impossible to do in real life – and the concept of "making tiny magic happen" is so much more vague than "he can run faster" or "he can float in the air".

Your example with Qui-Gon, that is indeed how I imagine this mask to work (and I wish I had tought of the Force before, that is a very good example). It takes control over the tiny variables somehow – usually through telekinesis or telepathy – and allows you to change a situation in your favor. I just disagree about calling the resulting event chance anymore, because once you know the details and try to change them, chance essentially goes out the window.

In any case, I guess we've argued about "random" for too long. Again, I apologize for the misunderstandings here, but I hope you see that I'm only trying to acertain what sort of events this mask power can actually manipulate. Too few and it's a useless curiosity, too many and it's overpowered.

Things I see it as unable to do is to make a falling rock divert its path, unless the path could be diverted with only a tiny amount of force (such as moving a pebble into position), otherwise it'd be full-on Telekinesis. I see it as unable to prevent an unstable rock from falling in the first place. I see it as unable to make a sturdy rock break off and fall. Basically (and I should really learn to write shorter posts!), I view a heck of a lot of things to have a flat 0% chance, and I am of the mind that the only thing which makes it chance in the first place is our inability to predict the event.

So tl;dr: I accept that we can describe a situation as a game of chance, but once the mask starts manipulating events I believe that there is no more chance.

Canon Bionicle actually had a rule to avoid those technical details, in fact, because it was judged (somewhat misjudged IMO, but only somewhat) that most little kids would be too confused by them. But most kids also have no issue with the effects, including things like messing with probability. That's the kind of thing the target audience loves to roleplay about, after all. Comic book physics.

We just see a trend, I think, in that the longer the series went on, the more outlandish the powers started to become. We went from strength and speed and x-ray vision to time duplication, interdimensional gates and spoken power programming.

Perhaps it is silly of me considering all the other things I've accepted/not accepted over the course of an entirely fictional story, but powers like this mask has a tendency to strike me as odd and unfitting for the setting.

To sum up: I firmly think probability is statistics, is it not? Things are random because we lack knowledge. When the Mask of Possibilities enters the picture, probability of an event is not relevant at all unless it is absolutely 0% in any realistic situation we could conceive of. Using probability in the single sentence which describes it is a poor choice of words, I think.

(I will reply to the more personal things in a PM, and I apologize for any issues with my previous posts.)

Regitnui · January 6, 2015

Probability is a fact. I have a miniscule chance of waking up on Olympus Mons tomorrow morning. There is, in fact, no physical reason why I should not besides the massive improbability of it happening.

Say we have an avid inventor who comes up with a weapon that could either blow up in his face or blow the enemy's face off. The Mask of Possibilities can tip the balance, making it more likely that one of those two outcomes will happen over the other, or indeed the hundred thousand other possibilities that involve the enemy spontaneously holding the gun instead of him, or the ammunition remaining in place while the gun is thrown backwards by the pulling of the trigger.

How does it do this? I'll tell you as soon as you tell me how a d20 in a closed system can come up with different numbers when rolled, all other variables being eliminated or neutralized. Because that's what you're wanting us to tell you, Katuko. How probability works.

Edited January 7, 2015 by Regitnui

Votuko · January 6, 2015

Back on the topic of the Mohtrek being OP or not:

1. I'd say it's pretty balanced, if a little underpowered (for the user, at least). Sure, you can make an army of yourself wearing different Kanohi, as has been suggested. (Assuming the user has great enough concentration.) But if you take a user with a long lifespan, the Mohtrek creates an almost inescapable probability that at some point in the future the the past version of them will die in some sort of battle that they have been summoned to. That creates a new universe in which the user never existed and is arguably worse than death. This also implies that many other characters never appeared in the story because they were erased by Mohtrek in what would have been the future.

2. On the other hand, it's HUGELY overpowered. If the old universe is destroyed across its entire temporal extent when a Mohtrek creates a paradox, then it follows that any Mohtrek user cannot possibly create a paradox because the universe they are in has not been destroyed. As "paradox" means the death of a past version of a user, then there is actually no risk in using the Mohtrek to summon past versions of yourself - they are destined to be unkillable. You can also extend that logic to say that injuries from future battles cannot have any negative effect on the user in the past, because if they are killed in the past due to injuries from the future, that is also a paradox and should also erase the universe.

3. Finally, think of the exploits! Trick Teridax into using the Mohtrek and kill his past self, and the universe is restarted completely free of him. Or summon your past self and write future information into their flesh to circumvent the "no remembering the future" rule. (Although that paradox may also end the universe, meaning that according to 2. something should stop you doing that.)

tl;dr The Mohtrek is self-contradictory in its current description. Most instances of its use should create paradoxes that would require the entire universe to restart, which I suppose is somewhat OP...

Regitnui · January 6, 2015

Most instances of its use should create paradoxes that would require the entire universe to restart, which I suppose is somewhat OP...

"Fatal exception occurred at xx003476 due to Mohtrek use. Reboot your Great Spirit Robot, and if this message recurs, consult user manual."

Radom GB: "What user manual?"

The 1st Shadow · January 6, 2015

Most instances of its use should create paradoxes that would require the entire universe to restart, which I suppose is somewhat OP...
"Fatal exception occurred at xx003476 due to Mohtrek use. Reboot your Great Spirit Robot, and if this message recurs, consult user manual."

Radom GB: "What user manual?"

"We don't have a manual anymore."

"Why not?"

"I threw it into a volcano."

"What for?"

"I disagreed with it!"

Tahu3.0 · January 6, 2015

The most powerful mask for what i understand is the Kanohi Vahi slowing time down.

**bonesiii** · January 6, 2015

In my personal opinion, I think the Olmak is the most overpowered Kanohi due to its ability to allow the user to casually hop through dimensions.

However, when it comes to other means of using a Kanohi, I think the Vahi is the most overpowered, due to being able to destroy the fabric of time within the Matoran Universe when destroyed.

Isn't this like an earlier case here where somebody listed a downside as evidence it was OP? I guess this would work if somebody wanted to us it as a WMD, but normally the OP thing would be if they wanted to control time however they wanted without the risk of this. So this actually helps prevent it from being OP. (Although it's also supposed to be more powerful than most as it's Legendary.)

I say the most OP mask is the Kualsi. Without the right way to counter it, and if the wearer is a skilled fighter, you'd stand no chance.

Well, that latter statement could apply to a lot of powers, but more to the point, I suspect it may need some 'cooldown' time to recharge for the next jump. So in addition to an ambush by one person, if you could guess where the target would jump to, and had a second person ready to ambush there, a two-person team would stand a great chance.

Katuko, I've replied to your PM, and will try (try) not to get too detailed here.

And as in the PM, lemme forgo quote tags [draft edit: mostly] as it's faster this way (and I'll use some bullet point replies too):

"My point, to make it short and simple, is that the Mask of Possibilities – by acting upon a single event and manipulating it directly – is removing chance to the point where "probability" of both the original situation and the resulting situation is irrelevant."

Assuming we're using the definition that "100% probable isn't part of what we mean by probability here", this still doesn't even work in most situations because it doesn't force total 100%. It just makes it MORE or LESS likely.

So the resulting situation usually probably still has some "between zero and 100" percent proabability, which matters because the mask can fail. And the original situation (what would have happened if the mask hadn't interfered) is still relevant too, because the starting percentage affects where the final percentage will be. That is, if the mask adds 20%, it will matter if you started with 30% or 60% etc.

-Lemme repeat that while I think the mask itself scans its environment, I don't think the user is likely fed any information at all. I think it's programmed so the user feeds the mask their desires, and it sees what it can do to make it more likely.

-Statistics still describes what happens, especially when SOME uncertainty is still involved. I don't get why you don't seem to be factoring this. It seems to me that wordings like "MORE likely" make this a vital part of the power...

"I agree that we do not need to know the actual probability in order to make the mask power work in the story, but that is also why I find "probability" mostly irrelevant to its actual effect, and I feel it would be best redefined."

I don't see why. That and possibility are the main words plain English has (and commonly understood mathematical English), that fit these commonplace and often important concepts. (My PM went more into why the importance of randomness is just as commonplace as lifting weights, as part of why in-story a Toa would want such a power, so out-story preferences against it banning them from it don't really make sense, in terms of logical consistency.)

The normal definitions we have suffice, and are widely known. Redefining it is only going to confuse people and take more work to explain your unusual definition to them.

"It's hard to envision what the mask can and can't do."

In some cases yeah, but you can just ignore those. Many others are easy -- a Toa fires a projectile. There's some kickback, so if he fires multiple times, there's a random spread effect of exactly where it hits. This would make it a bit more accurate (so imagine the circle of where the random dots end up constricting to be closer to the target, but not perfectly on it). Not as much as the Sanok, but that makes sense as it has more applications than the Sanok. This is how it avoids being OP.

And taking some thought to apply powers to specific circumstances is actually a big part of the theme of Bionicle.

"We agree that a deck cannot be manipulated once shuffled, and that a boulder can not be made to fall if it would require a major force, right?"

Former, yes. Second... usually. Unless there is a strong chance that a major force is passing by and can be diverted. Usually no, though.

I would have given the example (as I did in the PM) that a rock already falling is going to keep falling in the normal scenario (no real likelihood of something suddenly moving to block it here; that's part of the constants in the scenario... and it can't stop gravity or the like).

"By dealing with miniscule effects and a vague power description, we have the problem of trying to figure out not just its limits, but what it can actually do in the first place!"

But usually this is only difficult if you make it difficult.

If you just think about it intuitively the way people do about chance all the time ("If I'd been a second later I'd have been in that wreck!" and so forth), it's easy!

Usually.

"It also leads to me trying to explain my views on probability in sci-fi, which obviously falls flat because sci-fi rules about chance might as well be no rules."

This is too far off-topic to say much about, but lemme point out that by talking about a whole genre, you're talking about almost nothing, since different stories will differ in their approaches. Other sci-fi stories don't really matter here (and this is sci-fant anyways); what matters is Bionicle has powers, and this is well within the purview of what those powers can do, and it's logical that Toa would value such a power.

Complex or not.

"And everything from the Kakama to the Hau - and even the Mohtrek! - has a description which makes its effect upon activation rather clear. "Possibilities" does not, really."

Lots of us seem to be getting it quite easily, Katuko. I don't agree. See above.

Think of it this way.

Matatu means the enemy throwing a rock at you you can't hit you (assuming you have time to activate it, or see it coming -- the latter works for Hau too, obviously).

Possibilities means he might hit you anyways. :lol:

(But Possibilities, while having a smaller effect, seems to apply to a wider variety of circumstances, so it balances out.)

"I just wish to know if it really works by using telekinesis, or mind control, or whatever, so that I can properly envision just what it is allowed to do."

I agree clearing up mind control/influence would be helpful. Presumably it can't be the normal method, though; there's no mind involved in when a boulder falls for example (normally). Assuming it doesn't control the user (that would be Calix, I guess).

"because the actual effect of the power doesn't change regardless of if it makes your muscles stronger or it envelops you in an energy field."

Actually, sure it does, and topics have discussed these things. There are different types of strengths, and people have debated and questioned about them; does it add to endurance, for example? If it temporarily mutates the muscles, does the effect only gradually fade when it's switched off, as an energy field would imply? And an energy field could imply a much higher maximum; muscle alteration would presumably run into a hard limitation. It's highly relevant.

Maybe you didn't happen to think of these things, and that's cool. But others have.

I think this shows that it's not so much about the powers themselves, but about somewhat "random" (irony again!) cases of different fans happening to think of complications for one power versus another.

"Probability, on the other hand, requires more of an agreement of what its power even is. In my view, shuffling cards or rolling dice is indeed "chance" – tiny physics variables which you can not predict"

I disagree with the emphasis on predicting as explained already, but main point here is -- it's illogical to see shuffling and dice as chance, but not see the same thing in other situations as somehow not.

Whoever came up with the idea of a power of probability influencing, obviously recognized the simple concept that the same principles that are at work with dice are at work in many other things too, especially things in battle. And of course they have to be! Bodies and settings and weapons and the like are made out of the same stuff as dice and cards -- atoms, molecules, etc.

"The bio on both BS01 and Wikia is a single sentence which doesn't even cite an example!"

Maybe because almost everybody intuitively gets it and none of the editors felt it was necessary?

"Yes, it is only semantics. Sorry about that. I, too, see it as making sure your card lands on top."

Thanks for clarifying.

"It can't be said to now be a "10:52" chance in my eyes, because physics are either manipulated to make the result 100% predictable, or else the manipulation has failed."

I see absolutely no reason to say this. It looks like an obvious false dichotomy.

And... uh... yeah... if it fails, it failed. Yerpointwas?

Lemme quote something from my PM that's relevant here:

"If enough knowledge would allow us to acertain every result with 100% accuracy, then probability no longer applies, does it?"

In the normal mathematical sense of applying it to variables not constant between multiple iterations, yes it would. It would accurately describe the fact that one side of an evenly weighted cube will come up about 1/6 of the time, whether or not you see it coming each time. (Or not coming.) And if you weighted the opposite side slightly, whether you understood the role of that cheating or not, the math of the probability would still be adjusted accordingly, so it goes above 1, running through decimals and integers as you increase the weight, raising the positive probability.

This shows an example that debunks the idea that it's either 1/52 or 52/52. It's harder to see how it applies to card shuffling, to be fair, but my point is that influencing probability rather than forcing a 100% probability is possible even in real life, and the math of probability applies, even now. (To this example of a weighted cube, or a weighted coin, etc.)

So absolutely a 10/52 change IS possible!

Actually, though, it does look like in both quotes here, you're making another equivocation error, because you're apparently responding to my 10/52 idea with "100% predictable", which is NOT the same thing as having the same result (without interference) 100% of the time, or influence rather than force. That just means you have total knowledge of each case -- it doesn't change that the results can vary from case to case and that influence (rather than total force) still results in SOME variety from case to case.

It looks like you may have mixed up this measuring of percent with the more relevant one, maybe just because both involved a percent?

Measuring your percent likelihood of guessing right is a different thing from measuring the likelihood of a result happening. Make sense?

"The situation changes so that it is no longer the original situation"

Agreed, but this does not mean the new situation has to be absolutely guaranteed to produce the desired result. It CAN mean the "chance" is just higher.

Just like slightly weighting a die will not force it to always land on the desired side, but does change the probability math.

(A concept that often matters at casinos. At least according to the highly authoritative source of TV. :lol: A cheater in fact doesn't want 100% (6/6), because that's too obvious. Not that this matters to Bionicle examples off the top of my head...)

"In my eyes, the mask can not activate and change 1:500 to 1:10, because once it activates your wish results in either 1:1 or 0:1."

But all you're doing there (unless you were actually confused in your logic as guessed above) is headcanoning it into a Mask of Omnipotence. This isn't relevant to whether the canon mask is OP, because the canon one isn't doing what you're saying here.

Or maybe the example is simply outside the limits of what this mask influences, unsure.
As I've realized by talking with others, some view "making a boulder fall" as entirely within the realm of Possibilities to make happen at a given moment, whereas I do not.

I thought I was talking about the two swords example there. Pardon if I'm mixed up, heh.

But if a boulder is on the verge of going, so that random things like a puff of wind or whatever could make it go or not go at that time, I think it would definitely apply.

*checks back* Yeah, that was the sword example.

"I have never seen "30% chance" and the likes to be anything except a way for us to approximate and put statistics on the results we get/have observed."

All I can say is, read everything I've been saying to you. And again, remember it's irrelevant how often people SAY this. But I dunno if you live in a different dimension to me, because I hear people talk about this all the time. Usually when car accidents happen.

And probability scientists especially deal with things like the variously weighted dice often.

Random number generator programmers also have to deal with it, in their case often WITH understanding the causes in each case (or at least the computer does, and could be made to print out the causes before running each case, without making ALL cases have to be the same; in fact that would defeat the point).

"What I have a problem with is saying that someone could look at that box, magically wave their hand"

Pet peeve here, but this "magical hand waving" is usually nothing but a semantics fallacy, at least in light of the definition of "magic" as "science you don't understand." It could be applied to almost any power, so really says just about nothing in any specific case...

"Can it affect anything before your hand is in motion at all?

That last thing is really what I want to know."

I'd think it could if it's like applying a bit of telekinetic force; that could start before things start moving or after; adding a bit of downward push to the opposing side of what you want on a cube could start beforehand. But that also might waste power and risk it timing out before the die gets tossed, so might be a bad idea.

Or to use a more Bionicley example, start pushing a rock to the side even before your enemy picks it up to throw it. (Or the Kanoka... etc.) Presumably not enough for him to notice, until it's in flight. In that case it might be a good idea if you don't start it too early so that it would time out midflight, as slight changes in initial direction for things traveling (or trying to) in a straight line makes a larger difference later, versus activating it halfway through the flight.

"From my point of view, the event being observed should only be possible to manipulate if it is already in motion"

Maybe, but notice there are cases above where activating it beforehand can actually make the mask LESS useful, so less OP.

Okay, I see you keep going on to repeat this "probably is just what we can't predict" idea, and "probability is done when we take control." I thought I debunked these in the early short posts but you just keep saying them. Hopefully the above covers them, but if not, imagine that every time you say it, I post a version of the same debunking. I don't want to repeat it every time now.

If you disagree somehow with my perceived debunkings of these points, please stop just repeating the original idea over and over, and explain why my responses don't work (because at this point it's starting to look like circular reasoning).

"If it could add in two more Kings of Heart in the deck, then it'd have changed the odds from 1:52 to 3:54"

I don't think adding units is what's going on, but adding weight to one unit. (This is something I've noticed in all walks of life seems to be often missed by people trying to think about likelihood and probability. By "weight" here I mean both literal weight in cases like the weighted die, and importance/influence/priority/focus and so forth; in this case, the mask making one result more likely than others but not totally forced.)

"The mask is doing something which is impossible to do in real life"

Not so, as cases like the weighted die make clear.

In fact the math of probability is OFTEN applied to cases like that. In real life. Take an election, for example. If one candidate cheats (and isn't caught), the chances of victory go way up. But if there's only so many votes one cheater can add (making that voter's weight higher), all the cheaters combined can only cheat by a certain amount, and if most people still vote the other way, the candidate can still lose. The fact that weight of one voter CAN vary is a huge part of why people try so hard to police polling to ensure the weight of every voter is kept at one!

-I'm hoping you understand the distinction now about the user knowing the details and the mask knowing them, with the Qui-Gon example too. I think he likely forced a 100% chance, but the same principle could be used for less than that, and -- crucially -- that specific application of power applies there because chance was involved (a chance cube was used, so he had to have that skill for how to force/influence one side up, which is not a normal use of Jedi power after all, especially not making it look natural to Watto!).

"Things I see it as unable to do is to make a falling rock divert its path, unless the path could be diverted with only a tiny amount of force (such as moving a pebble into position)"

Agreed. Do you see why this statement is different from "it couldn't, period" type wordings?

Although not sure pebble moving is a good example. I would think it more likely the boulder's path bends slightly to hit the pebble a certain way or the like. Unsure though.

But I would say this is highly UNlikely, simply because a boulder implies large mass, and it takes a lot of force to alter the path of such a thing.

Maybe if a strong metal object was leaning against a wall next to its path, and a puff of wind might knock it over so it does deflect the boulder though. But that's not a situation you'll normally see, at all. Maybe a smaller boulder that is on a smaller peak partway down, next to the boulder's path, and the bouncing of the big boulder MIGHT knock it loose and into its path and deflect it enough. That would be a liiittle more likely I guess.

"I see it as unable to prevent an unstable rock from falling in the first place."

But if it's on the verge, why wouldn't it? I think it should. You called it unstable, which implies it isn't already falling. It's a matter of timing when it falls, and in the scenario of falling when a person just happens to be walking by, that's clearly a verge situation, by definition.

Okay... I said I wasn't going to keep repeating this... but oooooonnnnneeee more time:

"I am of the mind that the only thing which makes it chance in the first place is our inability to predict the event."

But as this is an "only" statement, and ignores the FACT that if you don't CONTROL it (and only predict it), multiple cases with the same constants will have different smaller variables and different results! Such that the math of probability does describe it. K, this simply isn't debatable.

Now you can debate whether or not you want to use a definition of "chance" that fits here, but to say "only" is to say that nobody else is allowed to use the normal definition that does fit it. That makes no sense IMO.

Once again I presume this mistake is only of word choice... but for clarity's sake I think it's important to understand this here (as if this really matters at all lol -- but presuming we care about accuracy ).

"We just see a trend, I think, in that the longer the series went on, the more outlandish the powers started to become."

Although I don't think mockery was your intent here, this looks like "mocking tone fallacy" as I often call it, or the principle behind it. What you phrase in a negative connotation as "outlandish", can also be phrased in a positive way as "exotic". It can also be seen as a natural progression from starting with obvious basics, and then after time to slow down and think, start applying the concept of powers to more advanced concepts.

Kinda like college prerequisites and more advanced classes; when readers have had time to get used to powers, start getting a little more advanced with their use, since it's easy to see why Toa would want powers that can do such things. (And basically inevitable that fans will start to think, "hey, wouldn't they also do this and this and this with powers?")

So, the fact that there's a change/difference alone cannot mean there's a problem, as change is an expected and healthy part of a continuing story. And BTW would be expected anyways as variety continues to be explored!

Votuko · January 6, 2015

Most instances of its use should create paradoxes that would require the entire universe to restart, which I suppose is somewhat OP...

"Fatal exception occurred at xx003476 due to Mohtrek use. Reboot your Great Spirit Robot, and if this message recurs, consult user manual."
Radom GB: "What user manual?"
"We don't have a manual anymore."

"Why not?"

"I threw it into a volcano."

"What for?"

"I disagreed with it!"

*Unnamed Great Being steps forward out of shadows, removes hood*

It's Greg Farshtey. *Dons Kanohi Mohtrek*

"Well, this is a mess. Looks like it's time for a reboot!"

*Summons past self*

*Shoots past self*

=> Canon explanation of origin of G2

ALVIS · January 6, 2015

...
"By dealing with miniscule effects and a vague power description, we have the problem of trying to figure out not just its limits, but what it can actually do in the first place!"

But usually this is only difficult if you make it difficult.

If you just think about it intuitively the way people do about chance all the time ("If I'd been a second later I'd have been in that wreck!" and so forth), it's easy!

Usually.

...

"And everything from the Kakama to the Hau - and even the Mohtrek! - has a description which makes its effect upon activation rather clear. "Possibilities" does not, really."

Lots of us seem to be getting it quite easily, Katuko. I don't agree. See above.

...

Maybe you didn't happen to think of these things, and that's cool. But others have.

...

"The bio on both BS01 and Wikia is a single sentence which doesn't even cite an example!"

Maybe because almost everybody intuitively gets it and none of the editors felt it was necessary?

bonesiii, do you remember when I called you out on being really (I presume accidentally) condescending and putting down your opponent's intelligence?

You're doing it again.

**bonesiii** · January 6, 2015

Actually, no Alv, because the possibility there is very possible.

It should not be insulting to realize that others can understand things more easily than you. (Or somebody else.) That is a very bad idea; it implies everybody has all the same strengths and weaknesses, which we know not to be the case.

And this also goes both ways, as mentioned in a similar example before. If I'm wrong in those things, then it is I who am failing to understand something (a problem) that in this case Katuko is. There's no room to hide from this issue here, Alv, so both sides should be mature enough to accept this -- that one side or the other must be failing to understand the subject more than the other.

Edited January 6, 2015 by bonesiii

fishers64 · January 7, 2015

Yes, but assuming that I know the subject more than the person I'm debating never seems to be a good idea. :lookaround: Whenever I do that, I seem to be setting myself up for a nasty surprise that the person could, in fact, know more than me. I've done that a few times.

However, in this case Katuko is saying "I don't understand this, but I think this is the solution, which would make the mask OP." bones seems to be saying "but I do understand this, here is the solution." In that context, his comments would actually make sense since the person he's debating already admits to not understanding. It's not insulting someone's intelligence to say "I know you don't know this, because you told me so." :shrugs:

Then Kat seems to reject all of bones' solutions in an effort to maintain the fact that the problem is unsolvable and his solution that he thinks is right is the only one, even though he openly admitted that he doesn't know.

(But this is all of my failed people-understanding stuff, so take it with salt.)

It's also not insulting anyone's intelligence - I didn't understand all the nuances of this either. That doesn't make me stupid. I also have written a bunch of debates that look like what Kat is saying now - it's up there with my most common brain errors, so it could be a memory wash...

Which Kanohi (Mask) do you think is the most overpowered?

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