Letagi

5 minutes ago, Darknut said:

But yeah @Owls, I would agree with @David Skyroller on pretty much all points regarding the pieces. While what you have is mostly one of a kind, I think we may be hitting the peak of what people are willing to pay for a piece of plastic these days. If you're just looking for offers it will probably end up in the $2500 - $4000 range. I wish the pricing @Letagi mentioned was still a feasible amount, but it seems that isn't the case these days. If you want to try your luck with an auction you can too, but there's less power in vetting who you're selling to that way so you might just end up getting it into the hands of someone trying to flip it (if you care about that, that is).

$500-1000 is still feasible, just not consistently so. The prototype black Ruru went for $725, and two brown Komau have sold for $1100 each recently. It depends entirely on who is able to bid, and how high, at the time the item goes up for sale.

Don't get me wrong, these new masks could very well go for a few thousand each at auction. There's just no guarantee, especially since the lack of provenance might cause some collectors to hesitate. Though I'll second that assurances from a Lego employee go a long way in that regard. 

4 minutes ago, David Skyroller said:

The seller said the light blue Kakama sold for $4,500 but I know in auctions like this, the higher bidders very often fall through and the sellers contact the next highest bidder(s). I think @Darknut probably has more info on this specific auction. I was expecting that one to land in the mid $2,000s and I think that $4,500 surprised everyone. My guess is it went so high because the seller has a good reputation, it was a cool color, and because a couple of the die hard fans who are actually willing to shell out that much money happened to know about the auction and have the cash/credit available.

You're right, I just found the auction post and it was 4500. Not sure why I remembered 2000.

13 hours ago, Owls said:

Hey, I’m Owls.

Earlier this year I found 6 different assumed prototype/misprint parts; 5 Kanohi and 1 Weapon as I’ve documented on Twitter and I’m pretty sure some other people have already posted about this in this thread. I can provide further proof if needed.

First of all, I know it’s a bit late but I’m open to answer any further questions about the parts.

Second of all, since I’m no collector I’ve decided after some consideration that I’ll probably sell them off over time, with the exception or one or two of the Kanohi(the Teal Matatu in particular).
This is why I’m looking for some price estimates, both for the masks and the light blue Trident. I know there have been some recent sales like the Copper Avohkii and Light Blue Kakama, but as far as I am aware multiple of those exist while the ones I acquired seem to be entirely unique (with the exception of the yellow Ruru).

I appreciate any help in this subject and hope I can answer some questions in turn.

-Owls

Deciding on a value for one-of-a-kind items is always tricky. Sometimes the numbers that people land on in auctions are almost unbelievably high, like $4500 for the light blue Kakama. On the other hand, sometimes items fall short of what one might expect; for instance, a one-of-a-kind prototype black Ruru sold for $725 at auction a few weeks ago. 

In general I consider $500-1000 to be sort of a fair benchmark for very rare masks, whether one-of-a-kind or few-of-a-kind. Then it's just a matter of who's in the market at the time and how high they're willing to go. 

Have you thought about what sort of format you might use to sell the masks?

16 hours ago, tourmalinex said:

My friend bought one for $175 in 2020 from CA, I am not above paying $400 for 1. Also, for some reason I think 3000 of them were made and that stage 5 was not made or only 3 sates 5 where made.

From what I understand there were only two Stage 5 in the lot that Will found.

5 hours ago, TERIDAX941 said:

I don't know if this was already reported (sorry if it was) but this is being sold on Ebay for quite a lot right now. I only just learned that these existed, they must be quite rare?

https://www.ebay.com/itm/204465003450?mkevt=1&mkpid=2&emsid=e112362.m1951.l3160&mkcid=8&bu=44113218276&osub=ca9cdbf34a27ff09ea5a236382ede64d%7ETE10001_T_NORMAL_CT1%7E10001&segname=TE10001_T_NORMAL_CT1&crd=20230921090000&ch=osgood

 

It's a rare piece, but not worth anything even remotely in the ballpark of 2K. Will Hafner gave out quite a few of them and traded me a full set of six. I don't know the exact number but there are lots out there. 

5 hours ago, Darknut said:

What's up with people distrusting Bricklink so much nowadays? Yeah the correct part arriving issue is true, but the transactional part is logged by the payment method used (PayPal, bank transfer, etc.) and then reflected on the site as a record of sale. Could buyers buy way higher on platform and then have the seller send them some cash back off record? Sure, but that can happen with any online seller platform, not just Bricklink. Also, that White Huna was up for quite a while if I recall, so I'm sure their was a lot communication going on between seller and buyers.

Too easy to fake a sale.

1. List a rare item at a high price.
2. If it doesn't sell, buy it yourself from another account to create a sales record. 
3. Post it again a couple months later, and justify your asking price using the sales record you created. 

Not going to name names, but I suspect that a few sellers do this regularly. Impossible to say with any certainty whether a particular sale is faked in this manner, but you can bet that some are. 

The white Huna was only up for a week or two if I recall correctly. 

16 minutes ago, Skybird said:

Are wmkk, sskk, etc not cast over plastic? I thought it was metal coated similar to the Chrome Hau situation, and given the hard plastic gray krana

VMKK are plastic with a chrome finish. If you took the finish off, you would have a GPKK. WMKK and SSKK are solid metal.

On 7/29/2023 at 9:43 AM, The Archivist said:

To be clear, these sellers aren't the cause of the Bronze Komau price spike. And the pearl gold Ignika. And the PGKK. They don't sell these pieces. They certainly aren't buying out 10 Bronze Komaus to spike the price. They buy a rare mask which isn't on the market, and list it at a price that only one person will buy. Because there's only one seller. To be clear, my below arguments don't really apply to the above masks, since there IS an abundance of supply on the bronze komau and no recorded sales at the high price. But three people aren't manipulating it, the general public just sees the writing on the wall. 

Yes, they are. Yo-yo is personally responsible for the 400% price increase of the PGK. He has bought and sold several of them over the past two years. Sellers do exactly what you are saying they don't do - they buy all the supply of a piece that is uncommon but not terribly expensive, and then they sell their stock one at a time and control the market for that item. I've seen it happen in real time. One of these days I might do it myself just to prove it can be done.

On 7/29/2023 at 9:43 AM, The Archivist said:

Also, after clarifying that I bought the above pieces for high prices, people on this forum suggested "you should contact the Ebay seller privately and sell off-the-books as to not record the prices". Literally, people posting in this thread have suggested that I should engage in market manipulation to keep the prices artificially low. Many others on this forum have done this personally. Price suppression like this makes the market prime for the jumps we've seen recently. 

No, we're asking you to prevent sleazy sellers from engaging in market manipulation by artificially raising prices. Literally the opposite of market manipulation. There is nothing natural about Yo-yo buying a prototype for $3000 and flipping it for $5000 a week later. Guess that's just the market doing its thing, right?

On 7/29/2023 at 9:43 AM, The Archivist said:

Others have said "well they will run out of buyers and sell low to make their money back". Has this ever happened? Have rare LEGOs ever run out of buyers and dropped? Have old, rare MTG cards ever lost their demand because all 100 people who wanted them finally purchased them? 

Yes, every time Lego releases a new version of a set. Desirable sets like the original UCS Millennium Falcon, UCS Star Destroyer, and the old Eiffel Tower used to be worth two to three times as much but plummeted after the new versions came out. Obviously there won't be a rerelease of Bionicle sets, but this shows that it is possible for prices to drop when buyers decide to spend their money elsewhere. I don't know if this will happen with Bionicle but I have a feeling that collectors are getting fed up with sellers ripping them off.

21 hours ago, Illuminatus said:

(and we all know once they go up, they stay up; ain't ever been such a thing as a "correction" in this type of market).

I dunno, I think it could happen. Prices are approaching a level of absurdity that I don't think is sustainable. Eventually, everyone who is able/willing to spend exorbitant amounts of money on the pieces they want will have done so, and there will be no one left who can pay $1000 for a pearl gold Kraahkan. The market will stagnate and sellers will have to drop their prices significantly in order to break even.

It's actually a version of the supply/demand argument, but reversed: when the supply of buyers is less than the sellers' demand, prices should drop.

18 hours ago, tourmalinex said:

I was told how to use two accounts to buy my own item and how to cancel the sale and have eBay still register the sale.

Yikes, that's very disturbing. It creates an environment where it's impossible to know what an item is really worth since you can't know know which sales are real. Especially frustrating given that I have been meticulously documenting collectible values for almost ten years, and now doing so is a complete waste of time lol.

1 hour ago, Illuminatus said:

Excusing this behavior as just how the market "is" while ignoring any individual or collective responsibility in not acting like absolute predators is just... morbidly depressing. I mean yeah, let's not sugar coat it, but let's also not justify it. Please.

Totally agree with this. Much of the recent price hike is attributable to a handful of predatory scalpers. Set You Up/Yo_Yo_Flamingo and Bionicle Universe are the main culprits but there are others. Set You Up currently has a light gold Avohkii prototype listed for $5000, no doubt the same one that just sold on eBay for $3000.

I suspect that sellers like him buy their own stock using duplicate accounts to establish a sales record, making people believe that certain items are worth a fortune, but I don't have proof of this.

I get most frustrated when items that really aren't that rare become prohibitively expensive, like the pearl gold Kraahkan. There must be tens of thousands of them out there, if not more, and they are pretty much always available for sale. If I can buy multiples of an item with a few clicks, it's not rare. 

It extends way outside of Bionicle. There are currently 41 Cloud City Boba Fett minifigs on BrickLink and around a dozen more on eBay. Clearly not a rare figure, and yet the Lego Star Wars AFOL community has unanimously decided that it's worth thousands. Just a few years ago they sold for a couple hundred - still a lot for a mass-produced plastic minifig, but attainable for most collectors who want one.

And as for the "demand is greater than supply" argument - if that were true, then every time one of these pieces gets listed, it would sell immediately. The demand for Cloud City Boba Fett minifigs is very obviously not greater than the supply. Pearl gold Kraahkan listings on BrickLink stay up for months. The perception of rarity in these cases has somehow been artificially created. Contrast this with something like an SSKK, which actually is rare and justifiably valuable.

I really hope the bubble bursts soon. I won't have any empathy for the predators who are out thousands of dollars. As much as I like the idea that my collection is valuable, I like the idea of being able to buy all the rare pieces I want even more.

8 hours ago, Illuminatus said:

I've got some bad news for Krana collectors.

If your collection was internationally sourced, you probably have way more color variations than you think. Also, if you don't have a very potent UV light you simply can't reliably know which Krana is which exact color. So invest in one right now. Here's some essential reading on the subject that helped me pick out a proper one.

It appears that a good deal of the Krana colors have varying degrees of luminescence (batch-to-batch inconsistencies) while others still have very clear-cut differences in both luminescence and daylight color (imo different formulas/factories).

So for example, if you consider the yellow Krana variations as something worth going after, you should know there are at least three variations of it; not two. The first variation (the one that people would likely call "light yellow") is the least luminescent one and has a very sharp, sicklier look to it under daylight. The other two variations (the ones people would call "dark yellow") look softer and more vibrant under daylight but only one of them produces a strong orange luminescence, while the other looks brownish under a blacklight. So you can't really go by collecting just "light" and "dark" because a) the light ones are the ones that don't glow, and b) only some of the dark ones do glow.

The blue Krana have two very clear-cut versions that are easily discernable under broad daylight: one is pale while the other is a deep, vibrant blue. They produce a grayish or deep blue hue under a blacklight, respectively.

The pearl very light gray Krana are either white or violet under a blacklight, no in-between from what I've seen, although they look identical under daylight.

Some other Krana like the tan on or pearl dark gray ones seem to show a wide spectrum of luminescence while otherwise appearing the same.

The purple Krana are without a doubt the ones with the most striking difference under a blacklight and no apparent in-between. But for the most part you can't tell which version is which under daylight so I'd advise reinspecting your collection if you've been looking at them without any equipment.

My take on this is if you need a UV light to determine the variation, then the variations are not worth worrying about. But to each their own!

14 hours ago, tourmalinex said:

Do not all the (SSKK) say sterling on the back and the other ones (WMKK) are hard plastic metal coated?

WMKK are solid like Tohunga said, but you're correct that SSKK are all stamped Sterling on the back. If it tests as silver but isn't stamped it's a fake.

3 minutes ago, Roger C-T said:

Alright, who saw that BL SSKK, what was it? =D

I missed it, but if it was real I sure like the direction these prices are trending...

5 minutes ago, Roger C-T said:

Actually got a Bricklink alert for once. Is this the same White Huna showing on the price guide as selling in April, or a different one?

The last one was sold by a guy in Poland. Doesn't mean it's not the same one though...

Edit: It's been taken down and is not listed as sold. Maybe someone made an offer?

14 hours ago, The Archivist said:

I PM'ed BU and he said he doesn't reveal his sources. Although he is a quite well established seller. Meanwhile EJJ does reveal his sources (allegedly). BU is notorious for holding onto masks for a long time, and overpricing them, like the red strakk. I mean, he's had it listed for a year or two and still raised the price last week. He's in no hurry to sell it. Why would he put up an auction for a mask? Unless he's trying to offload a fake version of a mask that he ALSO has a real version of by selling it on an off-brand account so it doesn't ruin his reputation? That's a (heck) of a theory, though. The Ebay account's been active since 2001 with perfect reputation. 

Anyway I don't think they're the same guy. 

BU is also notorious for selling "SSKKs" and "ZMKKs" which, in my opinion, are the fakest fakes I've ever seen. If one of the masks is fake, it would be his.

I have it on good authority from someone who has had quite a bit of contact with the eBay seller that it is real.

52 minutes ago, tourmalinex said:

I do not believe that it is legit, the eBay seller told my acquaintance who wanted to buy the mask that a person from Lego company gave them the mask.

Where is your friend getting the number 8 from? The first post in this topic? As noted in that section, that is only an approximation of the number that were in the collection from Binkmeister. Others have popped up in various places over the years. Quite a few former Lego employees seem to have them so I wouldn't be surprised if there are several dozen of this mask out there.

12 minutes ago, The Archivist said:

Well, good to hear I'm not getting scammed. I bought one from the guy. Then he upped the price to $1500 and left the posting up. I posted it here, then it went down entirely about an hour later. Which, I can only assume, means he had two and sold a second one after he sold to me. Soooo he had three total, I think. 

He told me (or maybe it was in the item description) that he got the Komau from Lego HQ back in the day, so it's plausible that he could have gotten more than one.

Unless he has succeeded in perfecting the art of Lego counterfeiting to a heretofore unprecedented level, the Komau I bought from him is genuine.

On 6/16/2023 at 8:03 PM, The Archivist said:

What do you lot make of this?

Interesting, that's the same seller I bought mine from a few months ago. I guess he had more than one.

Copper Komau prices are ridiculous, just a month or two ago they were selling for $100.

9 hours ago, SamDrew said:

A PG Vohtarak Shell sold for $371 on eBay, not mine but it’s the first I’ve seen sell in a while and thought it was worth documenting.

https://www.ebay.com/itm/364251944176?mkcid=16&mkevt=1&mkrid=711-127632-2357-0&ssspo=9DFzNN8iTW6&sssrc=2349624&ssuid=alhOdpA_RVi&var=&widget_ver=artemis&media=COPY

That is actually quite reasonable compared with recent sales. I've seen a few go for $600-1000 over the past year which is utterly ridiculous. Maybe Bionicle collectors are tired of getting ripped off...

40 minutes ago, chuckschwa said:

Any lego part released in a retail set, no matter how limited, that is priced over $100, is stupid high

I generally agree with this. The counterargument is that value is determined by supply and demand; if the supply is lower than the demand, then the value will rise to whatever the highest bidder is willing to pay. That argument is used to justify the prices of pieces like the pearl gold Kraahkan and Cloud City Boba Fett minifig. But the fact that there are four PGKs and 37 Boba Fetts on BrickLink right now (and most of them have been sitting there for weeks or months) kind of debunks that. If the demand were really higher than the supply, they would be selling as soon as they are listed.

I could be wrong but I think the secondary Lego market is headed for a big crash. I simply don't see the absurd price inflation that happened over the pandemic being sustainable. Everyone who is willing to overpay for stuff will do so, and then sellers will realize that there is no one left to rip off and they will adjust their prices accordingly.

On 5/27/2023 at 5:22 PM, The Archivist said:

And yet, when new prototypes/color variants are discovered with no ownership history, no authentication is required. They just get added to the rares thread and people throw thousands at them.

For the record, I don't add every newly found alleged prototype to the rares topic. They have to look really convincing, as the five from Twitter do. In contrast, there's a guy on social media who claims to have several prototype masks and Krana that absolutely do not look convincing, so they are not in the topic (I briefly included them a while back before realizing I was being way too trusting and took them out). This is a good point here:

10 hours ago, Xboxtravis said:

However, this is a good thing for fans looking to avoid fakes. Injection molding at home to imitate official masks would produce masks that look like the prototypes! Most amateur hobbyists would lack access to the funds required to create a true high quality mold, and while its possible somebody with a CNC machine and injection molder could create low quality molds similar to the prototype masks, it would be hard to create a truly polished high tolerance mold to get a 100% real LEGO feel. Of course it does mean prototype "numbers forward" masks could be more easily faked, but it lends credence to the idea that all authentic masks would have that distinct LEGO quality of polish and sheen (those in the Twitter post look very promising because of that along with the color matching to official LEGO parts)

I don't include rough-looking prototypes or that Hau made of a different plastic because, like Xboxtravis says, fakes would have similar qualities. I'm not accusing anyone in particular of selling fake prototypes, just agreeing that it is impossible to verify their authenticity.

10 hours ago, Xboxtravis said:

In the case of the Twitter thread it should also be pointed out there is a known production list of masks which includes many masks not represented in publicly released sets. The masks from the Twitter post do match the identities of known masks combinations from that production list.

 

Just to add a healthy dose of skepticism - if someone did want to pass off a fake as a real prototype, the best way to do it would be to find a piece on that list that hasn't been seen before, make one, and then point to the list as evidence that it's real. I don't think that's what happened in the case of the Twitter masks because they look very real, but the list could potentially be abused in that way.

20 hours ago, The Archivist said:

I am the guy who, last year, bid the TOK up to over 1k after it had previously never sold for anywhere near that price. Afterwards everyone started listing theirs for ~1k. I know it's far from proof, but I'll state for the record that I am overpaid and impatient instead of manipulative. Hadn't seen a single one sold since I started collecting and was worried they'd disappeared forever. 

I'm two cyclone Kraata from the full set and, full warning, I will likely behave equally irresponsibly if someone lists stages 2 & 5. 

That's good to know, thanks for telling us. In the future, if you (or anyone else reading this) want to buy a part for much more than it normally sells for, I would recommend contacting the seller and making an off-the-books purchase so there isn't a record of the sale (which is how I bought my brown Komau). Most sellers are open to this since it means they don't have to pay fees to eBay or BrickLink. You can still use PayPal G&S which has buyer protection built in, so there is no additional risk to you as a buyer. It would really help the rest of the Bionicle community to avoid inflating the costs of pieces.

14 hours ago, Roger C-T said:

Mental that it actually sold for that price. Unless it didn't, and someone just wants to make you think it did. Who would just chuck something like that up on BL? Someone who maybe does have one and wants people to think it's worth that much. There's that guy on Insta with 2 of them and 2 Komaus that doesn't reply to DMs.... Conspiracies!

I've been wondering about that too. He could have "bought" his own mask to establish a sales record with the intent of relisting it under a different account. I suspect that something similar has happened with other pieces that have exploded in value recently, like the pearl gold Kraahkan and translucent orange Kraata. Gradual price increases are normal but those spikes do not look organic to me. 

Who's the guy with two of each?

1 hour ago, Darknut said:

Anyone actually catch this White Huna for sale recently? I double checked my alert settings since I missed it but seems like it may have sold instantly. Still, first one I've seen on Bricklink in like 6 or so years. Hoping it was one of you guys that has been on the hunt for one!

It was actually up there for a week or so. BrickLink's notification system is acting up again. I just happened to see it the day after it got posted.

I made an offer for $1000 and the seller seemed open to it, but wanted to wait for a bit and see whether someone would buy it for his asking price. To my astonishment, someone did.

For the record I think $3500 is ridiculous for any mask not made of a precious metal. I recently paid $1100 for a brown Komau which is about equally rare, and that's the upper end of what I think is reasonable. Hopefully this sale doesn't set a new precedent because it will price most collectors out of the market.

9 minutes ago, Roger C-T said:

So what was that £10 SSKK on Bricklink really then? I know y'all are watching!

Hey Roger, good to see you back on here!

I've actually been meaning to send the seller a message to ask about this. I'll let you guys know if I learn anything. 

17 hours ago, Darknut said:

Congrats on finding one! Out of curiosity, do you happen to know what country the seller/trader found it in? I noticed a trend when I was hunting for mine and am curious if the one you acquired follows it.

The seller lives in Denmark and says he got it from Lego headquarters in Billund many years ago. Most of these pieces seem to come from Scandinavia.