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Does Probability Exist?


Lyger

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Something that's interesting to think about: Given the same beginning circumstances, would the same ending occur? Inevitably?

 

Think about it. What if an event happened, say, for example, let's have a throwback to Mr. Robert Frost, what if two roads diverged into a wood and you had to choose which one to take? And you think, and you mull it over, and the wind blows, leaves rustle, and you finally decide on the road less travelled.

 

Now, let's say time rewound, back to the moment as you were approaching the two roads. You have no knowledge that time has rewound or that you have experienced this before. Your mind is having the same thoughts as it was having the first time around, everything is in the same position, travelling at the same speed, in the same direction, as it was before, every last molecule, atom, electron, photon, EVERYTHING is exactly the same as it was before.

 

Even though the air molecules were moving the same way as they were before would they bounce differently? Would the wind still blow the same way? Would you have listened to a thought that you had ignored the first time? Would you have made the same choice?

 

If everything was exactly the same, would it not run exactly the same way?

 

Would your beginning thoughts have put you on a train of thought that would inevitably have led you to the same choice? Are you ever really 100% borderline indecisive, and you make your choice fully randomly?

 

Moving beyond even your thought process, what if you made a decision based on the flipping of your coin?

 

Would your muscles have moved the same way? Would you have decided on a certain position as the optimum for coin flipping? Would the wind and how tired you were at the moment and how hungry, frustrated, patient, everything, would that situation have led you to inevitably flip the coin the same way? Would the coin have moved the same way, the air have parted the same way? If it was all going in the same way as it was before, would anything be different?

 

Now that's a little wishy washy, but here's something to really make you think.

 

What if you're an old, old, person, and you're lying on your deathbed, and you're in a certain situation. Maybe you're married, maybe your not. Maybe you have 26 grandchildren, maybe you have 3. Maybe you don't even have a child yourself. Maybe you'll die rich. Maybe you'll die poor. Either way you're in a certain situation.

 

Now, here's the big one: What if time rewound all the way back to the day of your birth.

 

Would it have been inevitable that you ended up in the situation that you are in on the day of your death?

 

From the very day you are born, is the day of your death unchangeable?

 

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Everything's changeable if its the future.

But you can't change the past. But the future is the past to even farther in the future. So you um...you can't even change the future? Nothing's changable? I don't know. :P

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Thinking it over:

 

The thing is, time can't rewind without the same things happening. However, in this case, something seems to be different, especially with the last question.

 

All of time is erased, in a way, and begins again. You are born again. Have things changed? Do you have the same parents? Will you live the same life? To all these questions with time traveling, yes, but when time is erased, and it begins again, and somehow you find yourself coming to existance...

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You mean predestination. Given the same opening circumstances, although there are a plethora of options available, there are some that you will inevitably choose.

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It depends on things. But what this entry makes me think of is the paradox of time travel. If you use time travel to go into the past and stop an event from happening, let's just say Jimi Hendrix's death, then in the future you would not need to go back in time and stop Hendrix from dying. Thderefore, the futre would probably end up beng ruled by a bunch of monkeys or superintelligent ameobas. Moral of the story: dont mess with the space-time continuum. Which sucks, because if that paradox wasn't a problem, I'd totally go back in time and stop all the dead rock stars from dying.

 

But, to get back on topic, things never work the same way twice. EVER. When time is rewound, whatever happened before will have been undone, so that gives everyting free reign to occur differently.

 

 

 

 

Tempus Frangit (Time Breaks)

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Read The Last Universe by William Sleator. It will answer this question pretty well, and will make it understandable to boot. I won't answer, lest I spoil the plot, but quantum physics plays a large role.

 

While you're at it, read everything else by William Sleator. It may not be realistic, but given the assumptions made, Sleator has a great understanding on how science affects them.

 

- :vahi:

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Everything's changeable if its the future.

But you can't change the past. But the future is the past to even farther in the future. So you um...you can't even change the future? Nothing's changable? I don't know. :P

I'm not saying free will does not exist. I'm saying that is it inevitable that you will use your free will in that certain way and will always end up in that circumstance? If every last detail is the same, EVERY SINGLE ONE, I mean, will everything play out in identical fashions?

 

Thinking it over:

 

The thing is, time can't rewind without the same things happening. However, in this case, something seems to be different, especially with the last question.

 

All of time is erased, in a way, and begins again. You are born again. Have things changed? Do you have the same parents? Will you live the same life? To all these questions with time traveling, yes, but when time is erased, and it begins again, and somehow you find yourself coming to existance...

I think you sorta missed what I was saying. Yes, you have the same parents, you're born in the same hospital, by the same doctor, same bed, same room, all the way down to the same vibrating of electrons in the atoms that make up the universe. NOTHING has changed from the first time it has happened. And let's say the entity observing this all is a passive observer that takes up no mass, no volume, has no energy, and cannot affect the physical world in any way at all.

 

You have no memory that your life has already played out along one timeline. It is the exact same instant in time as it was before, even. EVERYTHING is the same.

 

Doesn't that mean your brain would think things through the same way you did the first time? Remember, no prior knowledge. Wouldn't the air and the weather happen the same way, since all the air molecules were going the same as before? Wouldn't the trees grow at the same rate?

 

Wouldn't you make the same decisions?

 

Okay, maybe rewinding time is a bad way to think about it. How about this. At the moment of your birth time was paused, and the universe was exactly duplicated. And I mean EXACTLY. Absolutely not a single flaw in the entire thing. Two exact duplicate universes, both paused in the same instant of time.

 

Then time resumes. Would the exact same things happen in both universes?

 

There is no surefire way to know, probability is the onmly way to predict the future.

I'm not saying predict the future. I'm saying would the future inevitably happen the same way? See below.

 

You mean predestination. Given the same opening circumstances, although there are a plethora of options available, there are some that you will inevitably choose.

Yeah. Exactly. Same beginning circumstances, EXACTLY the same, can't stress that enough. Does the air really move randomly? Won't it inevitably happen that this oxygen molecule bounces against that nitrogen molecule and the two move off in the same directions? If you roll a die, if you analyze the beginning circumstances to infinite detail, won't you be able to prove that the result was bound to happen?

 

It depends on things. But what this entry makes me think of is the paradox of time travel. If you use time travel to go into the past and stop an event from happening, let's just say Jimi Hendrix's death, then in the future you would not need to go back in time and stop Hendrix from dying. Thderefore, the futre would probably end up beng ruled by a bunch of monkeys or superintelligent ameobas. Moral of the story: dont mess with the space-time continuum. Which sucks, because if that paradox wasn't a problem, I'd totally go back in time and stop all the dead rock stars from dying.

 

But, to get back on topic, things never work the same way twice. EVER. When time is rewound, whatever happened before will have been undone, so that gives everyting free reign to occur differently.

 

 

 

 

Tempus Frangit (Time Breaks)

I'm not talking about changing time. I mean, think about it in depth. All the movies and stuff teach us all, oh, you can change your destiny, you have free choice, no one is bound to do one thing.

 

That's not what I'm talking about. You still have free will. But will your use of your free will always be the same? Will you always decide on the same choice?

 

And again, back to the air molecules, just because it's a good example. If you rewind time, or create two separate universes, will the same beginning necessarily generate the same end? I mean, think about it, ALL the circumstances, every last detail, is the same. Won't that cause people to act the same way?

 

Read The Last Universe by William Sleator. It will answer this question pretty well, and will make it understandable to boot. I won't answer, lest I spoil the plot, but quantum physics plays a large role.

 

While you're at it, read everything else by William Sleator. It may not be realistic, but given the assumptions made, Sleator has a great understanding on how science affects them.

 

- :vahi:

*adds book to list*

 

Will do, if I ever remember.

 

Eh, looks like most people didn't really understand my point... really sorta hard to visualize.

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Doesn't that mean your brain would think things through the same way you did the first time? Remember, no prior knowledge. Wouldn't the air and the weather happen the same way, since all the air molecules were going the same as before? Wouldn't the trees grow at the same rate?

 

Wouldn't you make the same decisions?

 

Okay, maybe rewinding time is a bad way to think about it. How about this. At the moment of your birth time was paused, and the universe was exactly duplicated. And I mean EXACTLY. Absolutely not a single flaw in the entire thing. Two exact duplicate universes, both paused in the same instant of time.

 

Then time resumes. Would the exact same things happen in both universes?

If you put it that way then both universes will be different after awhile. I don't understand the mind too well, but I think parts of your mind aren't always affected by the outside world..

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You're saying everything will happen the same, so yeah, of course everything will happen the same way, because you already said everything was happening the same way!
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Here's another old entry I desired to post in.

 

What if two of the same lives made different descisions? Small, like the colour of socks they wore one day. How much different would the two lives end up? Or a giant descision, such as staying in a foreign place for one month, or a year. How would that end up? The two lives could marry different people; the first one would marry someone that lived in the same area, the second one could have married someone living in the foreign country they lived in for a year.

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