Where's This Market Even Going?

[T.B.O.C]

On 8/3/2023 at 12:06 PM, Illuminatus said:

EDIT: Upon researching something else entirely, I inadvertently found proof that only the Infected Hau was in fact distributed in those packs and also that those packs absolutely contained predominantly default masks (absolutely shame on you, LEGO).

Yep! The Infected Hau was the chase mask, the one they hinted at was the rare extra one. I don't believe other Rahi masks were put in as far as I know.

[junglejunggames]

It's been about 50/50 for me in terms of opening up protodermic nuva packs and either A) getting a protodermic nuva + a colored nuva or B) getting 2 colored nuvas, whether it be the boxed version or the plastic version.

In terms of ****** behavior by big collectors/sellers, a PA-based collector who lives about an hour from Philly bought about 1000 USD worth of stuff from BU, never received anything except for a customs note, then notified Cas what happened. Cas basically said "well you never paid for insurance so I can't do anything, but I'll give you a discount if you buy from me again." Eventually Cas stopped reading his messages/responding. Needless to say, the PA-based collector just filed a chargeback a few months later and got all his money back.

In South Korea, discontinued sets were relatively cheaper/easier to buy NIB from old toy stores up to about 2008, when the price gap between domestic Korean prices and US/EU prices became big enough for there to be a profit after taking into account tariffs and shipping costs. Korea being a small country made news travel fast and soon every dude with a little money to spare started buying up prices and applying the same price speculation/forecast models and algorithms to buying/selling bionicles. This led to a huge bubble where G1/G2 sets all got their prices jacked up (for example, a Inika Hahli being sold for $350+) but the bubble burst shortly after 2014 (I think). Prices are still high as ****** so most people just buy used bulk stock from their versions of craigslists OR pay a premium to buy from abroad.

There's still pockets of rare stuff to be found and bought at reasonable prices, though it's much harder than it used to be. I recently got a new/open box bohrok kal that had a WMKK/pouch/card all in mint condition which was pretty nice.

Also Kudos to Letagi for being a good sheriff lol.

[junglejunggames]

On 8/5/2023 at 2:38 PM, T.B.O.C said:

Yep! The Infected Hau was the chase mask, the one they hinted at was the rare extra one. I don't believe other Rahi masks were put in as far as I know.

Not sure if it's the same thing, but I've seen at least one unboxing video of someone opening up the 2001 euro mask packs and getting an infected hau in it.

[T.B.O.C]

On 8/10/2023 at 5:58 AM, junglejunggames said:

It's been about 50/50 for me in terms of opening up protodermic nuva packs and either A) getting a protodermic nuva + a colored nuva or B) getting 2 colored nuvas, whether it be the boxed version or the plastic version.

In terms of ****** behavior by big collectors/sellers, a PA-based collector who lives about an hour from Philly bought about 1000 USD worth of stuff from BU, never received anything except for a customs note, then notified Cas what happened. Cas basically said "well you never paid for insurance so I can't do anything, but I'll give you a discount if you buy from me again." Eventually Cas stopped reading his messages/responding. Needless to say, the PA-based collector just filed a chargeback a few months later and got all his money back.

In South Korea, discontinued sets were relatively cheaper/easier to buy NIB from old toy stores up to about 2008, when the price gap between domestic Korean prices and US/EU prices became big enough for there to be a profit after taking into account tariffs and shipping costs. Korea being a small country made news travel fast and soon every dude with a little money to spare started buying up prices and applying the same price speculation/forecast models and algorithms to buying/selling bionicles. This led to a huge bubble where G1/G2 sets all got their prices jacked up (for example, a Inika Hahli being sold for $350+) but the bubble burst shortly after 2014 (I think). Prices are still high as ****** so most people just buy used bulk stock from their versions of craigslists OR pay a premium to buy from abroad.

There's still pockets of rare stuff to be found and bought at reasonable prices, though it's much harder than it used to be. I recently got a new/open box bohrok kal that had a WMKK/pouch/card all in mint condition which was pretty nice.

Also Kudos to Letagi for being a good sheriff lol.

Wow, I've always wondered if there's still undiscovered WMKK. Out of curiousity - priced like a regular sealed Bohrok-Kal, or did they charge accurately for the WMKK? Or any advice on potentially finding a WMKK....

(I kid mainly - lovely fantasy, but likely out of my budget)

On 8/10/2023 at 6:01 AM, junglejunggames said:

Not sure if it's the same thing, but I've seen at least one unboxing video of someone opening up the 2001 euro mask packs and getting an infected hau in it.

Yep, once they fixed those initial run production issues, Infected Hau's should have been the rare 73rd mask for all packs. Very first production run Euro/Non-US polybags only had Great Kanohi (minus clear and transparent neon orange Kau Kau) and Toa colored Ruru and Matatu. No Infected Hau, no Turaga colored masks, and those fun and wildly expensive Kau Kaus. Makes me wish I'd been around then to get them then!

[junglejunggames]

On 8/14/2023 at 1:10 AM, T.B.O.C said:

(I kid mainly - lovely fantasy, but likely out of my budget)

I got lucky - seller was just listing for whatever the going rate for a bohrok kal was, and I ended up paying a hundred extra on top as a thank you. It was crazy seeing the little collector card in mint condition but the corner of the laminate was beginning to lift (as it inevitably does for all of them). I'm not going to go crazy trying to buy up more sealed bohrok kal but I'll look forward to maybe getting a SSKK in a similar fashion. In general, I think taking my time and not jumping on the hype train has helped with collecting nifty things.

 

On 8/14/2023 at 1:10 AM, T.B.O.C said:

Yep, once they fixed those initial run production issues, Infected Hau's should have been the rare 73rd mask for all packs. Very first production run Euro/Non-US polybags only had Great Kanohi (minus clear and transparent neon orange Kau Kau) and Toa colored Ruru and Matatu. No Infected Hau, no Turaga colored masks, and those fun and wildly expensive Kau Kaus. Makes me wish I'd been around then to get them then!

I still see listings for sealed euro mask packs every now and then, anywhere from 50-100 USD, though at the height of the pandemic I saw a few being sold for $200+ ea.

[Xboxtravis]

On 7/24/2023 at 8:11 PM, Iruini Nuva said:

Part of it is age/life stage. Enough folks who grew up with Bionicle and maintained some interest in the hobby are now far enough along in their careers and lives to bring more $$ to bear against what's now a smaller pie. Obviously disposable incomes vary widely, but it's enough to move the market, which I think is smaller than it feels. Doesn't take all that many folks who are willing to pay $20 or $50 to resettle the market at the higher price.

Some of it is just...whatever zeitgeist is in the air like @freshbonkle mentioned. Seems to be hitting everything people collect.

That said, at least with some things, there's a knowledge gap where collectors (who recall/know what something is worth) may pay more than they prefer, but still avoid the heavy prices newbies face.

The typewriter market is like that now. If you don't know better you buy your first one for $400 on Etsy. If you do know what you're doing you're still able to find a $40 machine that old-hands will say should never be more than $20 because they made 30 million of it in 1955, but maybe you can tolerate that level of erosion.

Bionicle is tougher because it doesn't show up in downsizing/estate sales yet but it's getting rare in garage sales (i.e. anywhere not impacted by unrealistic internet prices). The good deals will return when our kids start auctioning off ours.

Edit: Or, for a more positive spin, if in fact there are folks buying up all the supply, there often comes a tipping point where a bubble pops and suddenly they're a bagholder with no buyers. Market cools, prices drop 90%; happens all the time.

This summed up my thoughts as well. The active Bionicle fans are now leaning towards being in likely a median age of their late 20's and into early 30's. The "new fans" from G2 are probably now in their teens if not early 20's. It is the stage of life where people have real jobs and disposable income.

Of course the Bionicle market I think is much wider than we often realize outside a few chase collectibles. It was at one point one of the largest toys in the world in terms of market share and models produced. However the condition of used toys and the large amount of toys that were either thrown out or held by their original owner who isn't selling them is what is also contributing to an over inflated sense of rarity. I do wish more collectors realized that though and refused to buy at some of the overinflated prices we are now seeing. 

[junglejunggames]

On 8/16/2023 at 12:05 PM, Xboxtravis said:

This summed up my thoughts as well. The active Bionicle fans are now leaning towards being in likely a median age of their late 20's and into early 30's. The "new fans" from G2 are probably now in their teens if not early 20's. It is the stage of life where people have real jobs and disposable income.

Of course the Bionicle market I think is much wider than we often realize outside a few chase collectibles. It was at one point one of the largest toys in the world in terms of market share and models produced. However the condition of used toys and the large amount of toys that were either thrown out or held by their original owner who isn't selling them is what is also contributing to an over inflated sense of rarity. I do wish more collectors realized that though and refused to buy at some of the overinflated prices we are now seeing. 

Sort of related, I try to get lots with older technic (slizer/throwbots, roboriders) sets as well as the earlier bionicle sets since the parts are counterintuitively in better condition. There's not much resell value on throwbots so they're usually easy to get cheap, and all of them are a great source of strong multicolored joints. I'm not immune to hype but if I remind myself of a time when I didn't want a part or a set because it didn't really appeal to me, then I'm far less likely to think "oh lawd, i got to buy this!" when people start talking about how expensive/rare it is. Unlike cool builds and new projects in the community, hype is easy to create and requires little work to substantiate. Especially when it comes to prices, it only takes a handful of purchases at a higher price for people to start hoppin' on the bandwagon.

[Takanuva111]

Some masks go for $20/30 these days. I personally think lots are better for getting masks. (And basically anything else) I have around ten and around 8 were from lots.

Edited August 20, 2023 by Takanuva111

[The Archivist]

There was a SDCC Kanoka that just sold for $1800. A blue-and-white Miru prottype just sold for ~1700. Neither are up for resale, which means they weren't scalped. They were Ebay auctions, but there's little point artificially selling an item on Ebay when there's only one, and when other buyers are bidding competitively. People who claim the market is due to scalper inflation will need to explain why a promo Kanoka (not even a kanohi) goes for this high despite zero scalping. 

[Aiden]

10 hours ago, The Archivist said:

There was a SDCC Kanoka that just sold for $1800. A blue-and-white Miru prottype just sold for ~1700. Neither are up for resale, which means they weren't scalped. They were Ebay auctions, but there's little point artificially selling an item on Ebay when there's only one, and when other buyers are bidding competitively. People who claim the market is due to scalper inflation will need to explain why a promo Kanoka (not even a kanohi) goes for this high despite zero scalping. 

That doesn’t mean they weren’t scalped, that just means they haven’t been put up for resale. A smart scalper would hold onto it before putting it up, that’s what I find most baffling when people immediately repost something. Yes it’s really cruddy, but it’s also not smart- you’re risking ruining your connections with the people you got said item from, and you look bad. The SDCC Kanoka is a pretty sought after piece, and on top of that was sold for charity. The Miru just sold, so whoever bought it hasn’t even got it in hand yet (it’s also worth noting that the prototype Miru was sold with hundreds of dollars of other masks). I know some people have a knack for immediately relisting, but I also feel like if you were smart you’d at least wait until you have it handy.

Edited September 3, 2023 by Aiden

[Illuminatus]

On 9/3/2023 at 6:53 AM, The Archivist said:

There was a SDCC Kanoka that just sold for $1800. A blue-and-white Miru prottype just sold for ~1700. Neither are up for resale, which means they weren't scalped. They were Ebay auctions, but there's little point artificially selling an item on Ebay when there's only one, and when other buyers are bidding competitively. People who claim the market is due to scalper inflation will need to explain why a promo Kanoka (not even a kanohi) goes for this high despite zero scalping. 

I don't believe that was ever the implication at any point in the topic. No one is looking for a singular explanation as to why the market behaves one way or another.

It's obviously not all the result of scalping. It's also obviously not all healthy competition and grown-up fans finally coming into income.

Both factors (and others) continuously play into the "hype" that dictates prices. And everyone buys the hype eventually.

I really don't see why it's so hard to believe that a) healthy market fluctuations can attract predators and b) predatory practices can give a vastly unrealistic perception of prices in general (especially to newcomers) and make people readily shell out amounts that they wouldn't be willing to otherwise.

I personally know of a handful of newcomers that just have a wholly different approach to collecting which can only be described as hype. They aren't exactly driven by nostalgia, they don't exactly want to resell, they don't exactly like anything about any one collectible; it's almost like they view collecting as a strictly financial instrument but not for direct gain so much as the perceived pleasure of owning something expensive. Idk, it's honestly all very strange to me.

[T.B.O.C]

Anyone notice Ignika and Toa Mata Nui prices slowly going down a bit? Seeing WAY more listings in the low $300s, dipping into high $200s. Waiting with bated breath to see if it keeps dipping. I got an entire Toa Mata Nui for around $40 minus the mask from an eBay auction, so a cheaper Ignika would be nice...

If only anyone ever sold the box and instructions!