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fabSheers

Percent odds for Kanohi mask/krana/kraata packs 2001-2003

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Does anyone know the percent chances of getting specific masks from the mask packs and their rarity? Mostly asking the math nerds out there. I know that the 2001 mask packs had all of the alternate colors for each toa and turaga mask, but what about misprints? US versus European? I know the vahi was randomly hidden in the 2001 mask packs, https://bionicle.fandom.com/wiki/Kanohi_Pack.

And then of course the kanohi nuva mask packs, how rare are the protodermic kanohi nuva? I know the miru is more common than the others.

 

Mostly I'm just looking for some straight up percentages for each mask possible. Any help would be great.

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I mean really the only way to do it is to gather data off their own mask packs.

The only mask packs I have really opened large amounts of were the 2002 Gold Mask & Krana packs. I have opened five packs in total from that era, one USA domestic box in 2002; and four European packs in 2019.

From those packs I got in terms of masks:
1 Gold Hau

2 Silver Pakaris

1 Gold Akaku

1 Gold Kakama

1 Silver Kakama

1 Silver Hau

1 Silver Miru

1 Silver Kaukau

As for the Krana, my memory is fuzzy as to what I got in that 2002 pack; but to go off what I got in the packs I opened in 2019:
Krana Xa:

1 Blue, 1 Tan, 1 Lime Green, 1 Black

Krana Vu:

1 Light blue, 1 Gray

Krana Yo:
1 Purple, 1 Yellow

Krana Za:

1 Green, 1 Yellow, 1 White, 1 Gray 

Now in more regards to the international packs, I have seen 30 packs opened all at once and the haul posted online. Forgive me, I don't want to sort all the Krana from that post, but let me pull up the mask results from 30 international packs:

7 Silver Pakari

0 Silver Kakama

4 Silver Hau

3 Silver Kaukau

4  Silver Akaku

6 Silver Miru

6 Gold Miru

5 Gold Akaku

6 Gold Kaukau

9 Gold Hau

6 Gold Kakama

4 Gold Pakari

Don't know if that is a large enough sample to represent the thousands of packs produced (hundreds of thousands? Who knows the production size of these runs?) But it might be a start. 
 

Edited by Xboxtravis
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2 hours ago, Black Six said:

I would like a source on this. I don't know of anyone who ever got a Vahi in a mask pack, but would love to be proven wrong.

I think fabSheers was probably thinking of the collecting poster that came with the packs, it has a little indicator of a mystery mask that shows the vahi, but in actuality it was the infected hau. they were probably planning to include the vahi before deciding to pack it as a bonus with the PC game instead!

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Not sure how relevant this is, but the white Kanohi Hau seems rarer and more expensive than normal on Bricklink compared to other masks.

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On 2/14/2020 at 6:57 AM, Master Inika said:

Not sure how relevant this is, but the white Kanohi Hau seems rarer and more expensive than normal on Bricklink compared to other masks.

Could it be due to the fact that white pieces are easier to paint? I think the transparent white Kaukau became more valuable because of that, at least.

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On 2/13/2020 at 11:57 PM, Master Inika said:

Not sure how relevant this is, but the white Kanohi Hau seems rarer and more expensive than normal on Bricklink compared to other masks.

White pieces are also more susceptible to smoke damage and/or natural yellowing due to sunlight exposure, so pristine non-yellowed white pieces are going to be less common.  

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4 hours ago, fabSheers said:

https://bionicle.fandom.com/wiki/Kanohi_Pack is my source on that. It's the only place I've ever seen that said, but I can't disprove it.

sounds like a rumor that wasn't fact-checked, the page itself doesn't cite any sources

Edited by Tarn
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17 minutes ago, Tarn said:

sounds like a rumor that wasn't fact-checked, the page itself doesn't cite any sources

I checked the other Wiki, and they actually have a list of the possible Kanohi from the 2001 packs: https://biosector01.com/wiki/Set:8525

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Neil Peart: 1952-2020
"The future disappears into memory, with only a moment in-between. Forever dwells in that moment, hope is what remains to be seen."

Check out my G2 (with G1 inspired characters) short storys: http://www.bzpower.com/board/topic/21497-vakamas-tale-a-g2-story/  and http://www.bzpower.com/board/topic/22164-takuas-tale-a-g2-story/?do=findComment&comment=1062114

 

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There's a listing on Bricklink that claims the trans-neon orange Kaukau was "the hardest to find color of the 6 normal variants"; but I don't know if that's actually a true fact, or just the seller making it sound rare. Alternately, it may just mean that the seller in question had trouble finding it in the packs that they personally bought, not necessarily that was genuinely rare in the overall run :shrugs:

Still, I can't help but wonder if looking at the sales records on Bricklink for each mask might offer some insights here? Obviously they can't be taken as solid statistics, since desirability plays as much of a role in how many get sold as availability does; and equally, masks which were also included in sets (i.e. the black Ruru or blue Pakari) will have very skewed results. It's certainly not the exact percentages you're looking for; but might it at least give a rough idea of which masks are more rare or common than others, from which to base further investigation?

I dunno, just a thought ^^


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Was the rarity of the infected hau the same as every other mask? So far, at least for the US version, the odds seem to be that each mask has a 1 in 73 (1.3%) chance of being in the box. That is assuming that an equal amount were made of each mask for the packs.

If that is not the case, the odds will change.

I do think that the prices on bricklink are not always accurate to initial rarity. For instance the black kanohi tend to be more expensive, but I chalk that down to people building 2001 shadow toa.

Also, I'm really glad you guys are willing to help!

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