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Percent odds for Kanohi mask/krana/kraata packs 2001-2003

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Does anyone know the percent chances of getting specific masks from the mask packs and their rarity? Mostly asking the math nerds out there. I know that the 2001 mask packs had all of the alternate colors for each toa and turaga mask, but what about misprints? US versus European? I know the vahi was randomly hidden in the 2001 mask packs, https://bionicle.fandom.com/wiki/Kanohi_Pack.

And then of course the kanohi nuva mask packs, how rare are the protodermic kanohi nuva? I know the miru is more common than the others.

 

Mostly I'm just looking for some straight up percentages for each mask possible. Any help would be great.

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I mean really the only way to do it is to gather data off their own mask packs.

The only mask packs I have really opened large amounts of were the 2002 Gold Mask & Krana packs. I have opened five packs in total from that era, one USA domestic box in 2002; and four European packs in 2019.

From those packs I got in terms of masks:
1 Gold Hau

2 Silver Pakaris

1 Gold Akaku

1 Gold Kakama

1 Silver Kakama

1 Silver Hau

1 Silver Miru

1 Silver Kaukau

As for the Krana, my memory is fuzzy as to what I got in that 2002 pack; but to go off what I got in the packs I opened in 2019:
Krana Xa:

1 Blue, 1 Tan, 1 Lime Green, 1 Black

Krana Vu:

1 Light blue, 1 Gray

Krana Yo:
1 Purple, 1 Yellow

Krana Za:

1 Green, 1 Yellow, 1 White, 1 Gray 

Now in more regards to the international packs, I have seen 30 packs opened all at once and the haul posted online. Forgive me, I don't want to sort all the Krana from that post, but let me pull up the mask results from 30 international packs:

7 Silver Pakari

0 Silver Kakama

4 Silver Hau

3 Silver Kaukau

4  Silver Akaku

6 Silver Miru

6 Gold Miru

5 Gold Akaku

6 Gold Kaukau

9 Gold Hau

6 Gold Kakama

4 Gold Pakari

Don't know if that is a large enough sample to represent the thousands of packs produced (hundreds of thousands? Who knows the production size of these runs?) But it might be a start. 
 

Edited by Xboxtravis
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2 hours ago, Black Six said:

I would like a source on this. I don't know of anyone who ever got a Vahi in a mask pack, but would love to be proven wrong.

I think fabSheers was probably thinking of the collecting poster that came with the packs, it has a little indicator of a mystery mask that shows the vahi, but in actuality it was the infected hau. they were probably planning to include the vahi before deciding to pack it as a bonus with the PC game instead!

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Not sure how relevant this is, but the white Kanohi Hau seems rarer and more expensive than normal on Bricklink compared to other masks.

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On 2/14/2020 at 6:57 AM, Master Inika said:

Not sure how relevant this is, but the white Kanohi Hau seems rarer and more expensive than normal on Bricklink compared to other masks.

Could it be due to the fact that white pieces are easier to paint? I think the transparent white Kaukau became more valuable because of that, at least.

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On 2/13/2020 at 11:57 PM, Master Inika said:

Not sure how relevant this is, but the white Kanohi Hau seems rarer and more expensive than normal on Bricklink compared to other masks.

White pieces are also more susceptible to smoke damage and/or natural yellowing due to sunlight exposure, so pristine non-yellowed white pieces are going to be less common.  

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4 hours ago, fabSheers said:

https://bionicle.fandom.com/wiki/Kanohi_Pack is my source on that. It's the only place I've ever seen that said, but I can't disprove it.

sounds like a rumor that wasn't fact-checked, the page itself doesn't cite any sources

Edited by Tarn
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17 minutes ago, Tarn said:

sounds like a rumor that wasn't fact-checked, the page itself doesn't cite any sources

I checked the other Wiki, and they actually have a list of the possible Kanohi from the 2001 packs: https://biosector01.com/wiki/Set:8525

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There's a listing on Bricklink that claims the trans-neon orange Kaukau was "the hardest to find color of the 6 normal variants"; but I don't know if that's actually a true fact, or just the seller making it sound rare. Alternately, it may just mean that the seller in question had trouble finding it in the packs that they personally bought, not necessarily that was genuinely rare in the overall run :shrugs:

Still, I can't help but wonder if looking at the sales records on Bricklink for each mask might offer some insights here? Obviously they can't be taken as solid statistics, since desirability plays as much of a role in how many get sold as availability does; and equally, masks which were also included in sets (i.e. the black Ruru or blue Pakari) will have very skewed results. It's certainly not the exact percentages you're looking for; but might it at least give a rough idea of which masks are more rare or common than others, from which to base further investigation?

I dunno, just a thought ^^


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Was the rarity of the infected hau the same as every other mask? So far, at least for the US version, the odds seem to be that each mask has a 1 in 73 (1.3%) chance of being in the box. That is assuming that an equal amount were made of each mask for the packs.

If that is not the case, the odds will change.

I do not think that the prices on bricklink are always accurate to initial rarity. For instance the black kanohi tend to be more expensive, but I chalk that down to people building 2001 shadow toa.

Also, I'm really glad you guys are willing to help!

Edited by fabSheers

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1 hour ago, fabSheers said:

I do think that the prices on bricklink are not always accurate to initial rarity. For instance the black kanohi tend to be more expensive, but I chalk that down to people building 2001 shadow toa.

That makes sense. Probably for that same reason. Lime Raus are rare on Bricklink too; they're more desirable for those of us who grew up with MNOG, because of wanting a physical representation of Tamaru.

And, well... until I checked right now, I didn't realise that Bricklink's history of sales for any given part only ever covered the past six months. I suppose it's not a lot of use for long-term sales data after all, in any case. Sorry I couldn't be more help :/

Edited by Darth Jaller
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EDIT: Because the mask packs were guaranteed one toa and one turaga mask, the odds change.

Toa masks: 1/30 chance (or 3.333...%)

Turaga masks: 1/31 chance (3.225...%)

The toa have 30 because I don't think standard colors were included in the packs. The turaga have 31 because the infected hau was included in packs in place of a turaga mask.

Of course, this is going off of the assumption that identical amounts were created of each kanohi.

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At least for the noble / Turaga masks, standard colours were included in the packs; I know for certain that I got a lime Mahiki from one that I bought from Legoland Windsor, back in the day. Couldn't say whether the same was true for the great masks or not.


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Here's another fun thing to consider. Seeing as the original Kanohi were distributed in Europe first, the most common misprints, i.e. the six Matatu, six Ruru and two Kaukau masks, were most likely produced instead of their correct counterparts rather than in addition to them, as this LEGOLAND display seems to suggest.

That means that not only are the original misprint Kanohi generally harder to find, but so are their correct counterparts, i.e. all the proper Turaga colors of the Matatu and Ruru as well as (wait for it) the trans-white and trans-orange Kaukau.

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I did not know that, huh. That's such a neat fact, though. And it would explain how one of my childhood friends had both the Ruru and Matatu in misprint white. Even back then, I thought it was wild that he'd scored two same-colour rare misprints in so few packs; but if that was because we in Europe didn't get the correct versions of the masks here, that would make a lot more sense - it would be no more unlikely than, say, scoring two packs with lime noble masks in one purchase (which, incidentally, was something that I did once).

...that would also explain that one trans-neon orange Kaukau on Bricklink that I mentioned: if, indeed, it wasn't available in Europe and only in America, it would naturally be rarer than any other standard Kaukau colour, except maybe the trans-clear one. I guess the seller in question was right, after all ^^

Edited by Darth Jaller

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This is getting pretty mathematical for me.

I too noticed how hard it is to find lime Rau on Bricklink (for my Tamaru), but I always assumed that the mask was coincidentally a rarer one along with being for a specific character. After all, more people buying shouldn't necessarily impact the initial quantity available, right?

That Windsor display hurts my eyes.


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Let me clarify what I meant: the proper colors definitely were available in Europe, just at a later point. I would assume the general ratio between misprint and correct Matatu/Ruru/Kaukau masks was either 1:1 or 1:2 in favor of the correct ones.

But generally, the misprint masks were very common. More common than their current price would suggest.

And since this topic is about odds, I would say that your chance of getting a misprint mask in Europe was about 20% during the initial release of the mask packs and then maybe 10% after they were fixed, considering 14 of the 72 masks were initially misprints.

Edited by Illuminatus
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23 hours ago, Illuminatus said:

Here's another fun thing to consider. Seeing as the original Kanohi were distributed in Europe first, the most common misprints, i.e. the six Matatu, six Ruru and two Kaukau masks, were most likely produced instead of their correct counterparts rather than in addition to them, as this LEGOLAND display seems to suggest.

That means that not only are the original misprint Kanohi generally harder to find, but so are their correct counterparts, i.e. all the proper Turaga colors of the Matatu and Ruru as well as (wait for it) the trans-white and trans-orange Kaukau.

I guess I got stupid lucky as a kid in one of those Bionicle card/board games; which used Kanohi as tokens it had both a Trans-Red and a Trans-Clear Kaukau to represent Tahu and Kopaka's game pieces on the board. 

I have tried collecting all the Kaukau's; its probably no surprise the only ones I don't have yet are the Trans-Yellow, Trans-Light Blue and Trans-Neon Orange since all three have such inflated prices. I have all the rest, just not those three. 

3 hours ago, Illuminatus said:

Let me clarify what I meant: the proper colors definitely were available in Europe, just at a later point. I would assume the general ratio between misprint and correct Matatu/Ruru/Kaukau masks was either 1:1 or 1:2 in favor of the correct ones.

But generally, the misprint masks were very common. More common than their current price would suggest.

And since this topic is about odds, I would say that your chance of getting a misprint mask in Europe was about 20% during the initial release of the mask packs and then maybe 10% after they were fixed, considering 14 of the 72 masks were initially misprints.

Also that is fascinating... had we never known that the misprints were indeed that, misprints... would their prices have skyrocketed to what they are now? Or would they perhaps have sat at a price more comparable to the 'correct' mask costs? 


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To be perfectly honest, perception seems to play a key role in the amount of money a BIONICLE fan is willing to pay (or charge) for any given collectible.

That said, I do believe a great many collectibles are not objectively rarer or harder to find than others. They are just more expensive because at some point someone decided that they were rare and everybody else just followed suit. *shrug*

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19 hours ago, Illuminatus said:

To be perfectly honest, perception seems to play a key role in the amount of money a BIONICLE fan is willing to pay (or charge) for any given collectible.

That said, I do believe a great many collectibles are not objectively rarer or harder to find than others. They are just more expensive because at some point someone decided that they were rare and everybody else just followed suit. *shrug*

Well its going to be interesting to see where the market goes. As demand dies out, will there be a surplus of used Bionicle flooding Bricklink? Or as more Bionicle fans become adults with some disposable income will market prices spike even higher as people push to buy the "must haves" they never got as children? I know I certainly have been on a Kanohi collecting kick over this last year, everytime I make a Bricklink order I try shoving in some Kanohi if the store has any. 

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On ‎2‎/‎23‎/‎2020 at 11:26 AM, Xboxtravis said:

Well its going to be interesting to see where the market goes. As demand dies out, will there be a surplus of used Bionicle flooding Bricklink? Or as more Bionicle fans become adults with some disposable income will market prices spike even higher as people push to buy the "must haves" they never got as children? I know I certainly have been on a Kanohi collecting kick over this last year, everytime I make a Bricklink order I try shoving in some Kanohi if the store has any. 

I'm honestly leaning toward the latter. I have a near-complete set of misprints and it's cost me way more than I'm willing to admit. Making it worse, I don't regret it and fully intend to overpay more in the future to make my inner child happy. The way you put it (buy the "must haves" they never got as children) describes my exact mentality when I'm on BrickLink. Is it healthy? No. Is it cathartic? Definitely.

Aside from BIONICLE, though, a lot of things fall into that cycle of perceived rarity causing actual rarity.

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4 hours ago, Master Inika said:

I'm honestly leaning toward the latter. I have a near-complete set of misprints and it's cost me way more than I'm willing to admit. Making it worse, I don't regret it and fully intend to overpay more in the future to make my inner child happy. The way you put it (buy the "must haves" they never got as children) describes my exact mentality when I'm on BrickLink. Is it healthy? No. Is it cathartic? Definitely.

Aside from BIONICLE, though, a lot of things fall into that cycle of perceived rarity causing actual rarity.

That's why my Bricklink trips are so dangerous to my wallet too. "Just three more Kaukau's to go and I'll have them all..." is something I have to fight against for the health of my bank account. 


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13 hours ago, Xboxtravis said:

That's why my Bricklink trips are so dangerous to my wallet too. "Just three more Kaukau's to go and I'll have them all..." is something I have to fight against for the health of my bank account. 

I thought that way too until one day I just buckled and now I have ten different Kaukau (six main colors, gold, silver, yellow, and sky blue). No regerts.

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This is why I need to finish college...

So I can complete the Kaukau collection! :kaukau:


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2 hours ago, Xboxtravis said:

This is why I need to finish college...

So I can complete the Kaukau collection! :kaukau:

Same, man. Same. :kaukau: (sad yellow kaukau noises)

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When the Protodermic Kanohi Nuva became available, I bought 10 packs of them and never got pearl gray ones. I was buying them sporadically from Kmart. Kmart was the only place to shop for toys. It turns out that somebody had been using a small pen to make holes to look in the boxes, so they bought up all the harder to find masks. There also was a  Bohrok Kal with an empty black bag. Anyway, I did end up getting a full set of red Nuva masks. I am still looking for a pearl gray Hau Nuva to this day.

 


 

 

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7 hours ago, tourmalinex said:

When the Protodermic Kanohi Nuva became available, I bought 10 packs of them and never got pearl gray ones. I was buying them sporadically from Kmart. Kmart was the only place to shop for toys. It turns out that somebody had been using a small pen to make holes to look in the boxes, so they bought up all the harder to find masks. There also was a  Bohrok Kal with an empty black bag. Anyway, I did end up getting a full set of red Nuva masks. I am still looking for a pearl gray Hau Nuva to this day.

 

 

That's just sad.

How come the Protodermic Miru Nuva is usually much cheaper? That's the first one I got on BL, then I paid extra for the Pakari. They're one of the rarer and more expensive ones I try to keep an eye out for now.


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12 hours ago, Master Inika said:

That's just sad.

How come the Protodermic Miru Nuva is usually much cheaper? That's the first one I got on BL, then I paid extra for the Pakari. They're one of the rarer and more expensive ones I try to keep an eye out for now.

For whatever reason, the Miru is just significantly more common. 

It's baffling that I had an easier time obtaining a G2 "Exclusive Gali Mask" than I have a complete set of Protodermic Kanohi Nuva. I still need a Protodermic Kakama and Pakari Nuvas to have a full set of G1 collectables (minus Kraata and the Pearl Gold Kraahkan). Been searching for months, and the only time a Kakama went on Bricklink happened to be the one day that week I wasn't free to check Bricklink.

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1 hour ago, InconspicuousShark said:

For whatever reason, the Miru is just significantly more common.

The Miru is more common because a huge lot of them were sold a number of years ago (no one knows where the seller obtained them). It flooded the market and lowered the price.

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